Overall, our pattern remains the same in our forecast, but we are pulling back on moisture just a little bit, which will allow temps to climb a bit more. We think the next 5-6 days will be the warmest we have seen in quite some time. However, they will feel warmer than they actually are, thanks to an increase in humidity. We are seeing some ridging over areas to the west, which will allow for the heat to build northeast. Temps today through next Tuesday will range from 4-7 degrees above normal.
Today we see scattered showers and thunderstorms over about 70% of the state some areas will see stronger rains than others, but overall, our totals will be from a few hundredths to about half an inch. There is a threat of some strong to severe weather off an on through the day.
We are removing most moisture over the state for all of Friday and Saturday. We can’t completely rule out a renegade heat based shower, but at this point nothing looks organized enough to really be forecast worthy. As mentioned above, temps will be above normal and humidity levels will be high.
Showers streak across northern parts of the state Sunday, but we should say partly from US 24 southward. Northern areas will see up to .4” of moisture with 60% coverage. On Monday we see a similar set up, with partly sunny skies south of a line from Michigan City to Portland. North and east of that line we expect scattered showers with moisture up to .25”.
Clouds increase next Tuesday, and we will start to see a shift in our weather pattern. Temps stay warm, but by evening scattered showers will be around. Then we see showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Moisture potential each day will be up to half an inch, and daily coverage between 60% and 70%. Combined 4 day totals into the first half of the holiday weekend will be from half to 2” with coverage at 80%. The remaining 20% will have rain too, but likely fall short of the half inch lower precipitation threshold. The map above is an updated look at 10 day rain totals through the end of next week.
The extended 11-16 day forecast attempts to dry out s little bit for Sunday the 7th, as we end up with a mix of clouds and sun. A few scattered showers return for Monday the 8th. They bring only a few hundredths to a tenth or two, but coverage will be 70% of the state. Back to dry weather for Tuesday through Thursday to finish the extended period.
So, overall we are granting that perhaps temps can do a little better here in the short term. We should see GDD’s above normal today through Monday. However, then we get back to normal temperature levels, as the moisture ramps up. This is a slightly better forecast for crop growth and development, and should be a very good forecast for forage work in many areas, although a little more challenging up north.