Dry weather is here for the next 3 and a half days! We see nothing but sunshine and blue skies today through Sunday midday. Temperatures will be climbing. We expect a range of 83-89 across the state today, 87-94 tomorrow, and 88-94 for the weekend, with Saturday being the hottest day. We think all parts of the state will see at least 90 degrees Saturday, and with humidity values trying to increase, the heat index values will be climbing as well. Fortunately, growing crops could care less about heat indices. While it will be hot, we need to stress that actual air temps are not going to really be all that excessive. These temps are going to be a good 5-7 degrees above normal for this time of year, but after all, it is summer, and we have been cooler than normal the past several days. The map above shows high temps Saturday afternoon.
Sate Sunday afternoon and evening, we have a minor batch of precipitation looking to break out, first up north, and then working south and east. Rains may not start in southern Indiana until overnight Sunday night. Still, through Monday midday we can see anywhere from .1”-.5” with coverage at 60%. Rains are done as soon as sunrise on Monday morning up north, and by late morning in the south. We see mixed clouds and sun for both Tuesday and Wednesday (Independence Day) of next week, but we can’t rule out a bit of scattered shower action. Tuesday it looks to mostly be south of I-70, and Wednesday it s just scattered about, with not more than 50% coverage, but we still need to skew it south. We do not think this is a big deal, but we can’t bring ourselves to wave the all clear flag. Temperatures for the Monday through Wednesday period will be generally in an 85-92 degree range.
We are dry next Thursday through the following Monday. Temps to finish next week will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. This will promote strong drying once again. For the rest of the extended period, we have a few scattered showers with 40% coverage for the 10th, rain totals of no more than .4”, and then we are dry again for Wednesday the 11th through the morning of the 12th. The only strong front in our forecast this morning comes late in the 11-16 day window, crossing from Thursday afternoon the 12th through Friday the 13th (yes…Friday the 13th!). That front has potential for half to 1.5” rains with coverage at 90% of the state. We swing back dry with strong high pressure building in for the 14th forward.
So, a general summary of this forecast runs similar to what we have been hinting at over the past few days. The pattern is getting warmer, yes. But a bigger story will be precipitation shutting off. Initially, that will make many folks happy, as we have see excessive rains over the past couple of weeks. However, soil conditions may change quickly, with maximum evaporation and high temps. This makes us concerned that we may start to hear complaints about moisture and “needing a rain” as soon as mid to late week next week. Time will tell, but if we have gotten used to ample moisture to this point…we likely are going to be in for a rude awakening. We are not calling for instantaneous drought or immediate crop problems…but rain timing will take on much more of a premium in our discussions going forward.