Our weather forecast is a little simpler this morning, as we seem to want to make swings back and forth in the pattern. We are starting off drier in our thoughts, as we are taking out significant moisture from our forecast this morning through the weekend and early next week. That’s not to say there won’t be any threat of action; with the warm air that is surging in, we won’t rule out some heat based instability at times, which would trigger a shower or two. But we are not looking for anything well organized through the next 4 days. The best chance for a renegade shower or two will be in northern areas. But, generally we should be partly to mostly sunny statewide with warmer than normal temps. Now through next Monday we should average about 3-6 degrees above normal.
The pattern swings back wetter on Tuesday of next week, and we have rain chances in the forecast for the following 5 days from there. We can see up to half an inch of moisture each day Tuesday through Saturday. Initial coverage will be from 50-60% Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday with a small bias toward the northern two thirds of the state, and then go to 80% statewide Friday and Saturday. That means we can see some significant moisture stack up next week. We do get a mix of clouds and sun in for Sunday the 7th. The map shows rain through the 10 day period, most of which comes next Tuesday through Saturday.
For the extended period, we continue with a relatively active pattern, as rains are expected at least 3 out of 6 days. A few showers come up across southern and western parts of the state Monday the 8th, perhaps up to .3”. However, the rest of the state stays dry and sunny. Tuesday and the first part of Wednesday also will turn out partly to mostly sunny. Clouds increase next Wednesday afternoon, and then we see showers return overnight Wednesday night in the south and west. From there action expands and thunderstorms develop for Thursday the 11th. We can see a tenth to half an inch with 80% coverage. After about a 12 hour pause in action through the first part of Friday, shower and storms are back overnight Friday night and Saturday the 12th and 13th. Rains there can be from .2”-.8” with coverage at 80%.