The overall forecast it unchanged in its basic form, as we are only making a few tweaks to this weekend’s late precipitation chance. We remain dry through most of Sunday with sunshine and blue skies. Temperatures will work higher today and even higher still tomorrow before pulling back a few degrees for Sunday as clouds build. We look for daytime highs of 87-94 today and 88-94 for the weekend, with tomorrow being the hottest day. Humidity will be climbing slightly too, so heat index values will be in the triple digits for at least tomorrow afternoon, perhaps Sunday. The map at right shows high temps for Saturday.
We are pushing our next chance of precipitation back slightly. We think showers and thunderstorms develop closer to midnight Sunday night and then go through at least Monday midday. We also look for thunderstorms to play a bigger role in the pattern for that period, and with that we can see slightly better rains. We are raising rain totals to .25”-.75” but leaving coverage at 60%. Rain will be out of here by Monday mid to late afternoon at the latest. The map at right shows rain potential for the state out of the system through Monday evening.
Dry weather is back for Tuesday on through the end of the week. We won’t rule out some scattered showers each afternoon Tuesday and Wednesday (Independence Day) but we don’t think it will be wide spread or have any intensity. As the week progresses, temps climb back up into a range from 88-92 over most of the state, meaning we are above normal, but not as warm as what we expect this weekend.
We are leaving the extended period completely alone this morning. We may have to keep an eye out for a few scattered showers with 40% coverage around the 10th, rain totals of no more than .4”, and then we are dry again for Wednesday the 11th through the morning of the 12th. A strong front remains in sight late in the period, for the afternoon of the 12th through the 13th, with half to 1.5” rains over 90% of the state. We swing back dry with strong high pressure building in for the 14th forward.
So, nothing changes in our thought process this morning. We are very warm short term, and rains definitely fall off from what we have seen for most of June. But, the rains that we do see around have good enough timing, and the moisture we have in our soil profile is good enough, that we should make it through mid-July with only concerns, not any real problem. But…the pattern will catch the eye of the markets, sooner or later.