No change in today’s outlook, as we expect showers to move across the state through the day. The best chance of thunderstorm development will be this afternoon and evening. We continue to look for .2”-1.2” rain totals with 80% coverage today, with the upper end of the range coming from thunderstorms. So, we will all mostly be keeping our fingers crossed for thunderstorms to miss us.
Tomorrow we still see most moisture moving away, and we even may see limited action in far southern Indiana. However, showers return in southern Indiana for Friday and Saturday. During the next 3 days, we should see generally dry weather over the northern part of the state. For tomorrow, Friday and Saturday, we see our best chances of rain stay over the southern half of the state where we can pick up a combined total of .25”-.75”, but we are dropping coverage to 60% combined. Late Saturday rains start to expand across the state, lifting up from the south, and for Sunday we see showers over 70% of the state bringing up to half an inch, and in some cases .75”. The map shows moisture totals through Sunday night.
We are keeping our forecast for next week mostly dry. We see partly to mostly sunny skies Monday through Wednesday midday. The second half of the week may bring more clouds. Some models started to suggest late yesterday that there can be some moisture rotating into the region around a strong low tracking across the upper Midwest and into the great lakes. Right now, we are keeping our forecast dry all week, but will leave the second half of the week with an asterisk. We may need to add in some showers for Thursday, Friday and even early Saturday if we get confirmation of that Great Lakes low shifting a little farther south and east. Without that, we still will be seeing most of the state with 5 dry days back to back. So, the potential for pattern change at midweek could have a dramatic impact on what we can accomplish.
The extended period is fully unchanged this morning. Showers and thunderstorms are around for Saturday the 15th bringing .1”-.6” and 70% coverage. Then on Sunday we see a mix of clouds and sun up north, but a chance of late afternoon and evening showers south of I-70. Those showers can bring up to half an inch, but only 50% coverage. Monday the 17th shows potential for showers producing .05”-.45” rain and 60% coverage, then we go dry and partly sunny for Tuesday the 18th. Showers and thunderstorms are back for Wednesday the 19th over the northern half of the state, and could bring some bigger totals, from .25”-1.5” and 80% coverage.