Some areas of the state are very happy this morning, as they missed out on thunderstorms yesterday afternoon and last night. Other areas are not as happy, because they did NOT miss that action. Generally speaking, north of US 24 we got away with little to no precipitation, and planting has been able to continue unhindered. Our forecast in the short term is nearly unchanged this morning.
That means we have dry weather over about 80% of the state today through Saturday. There continues to be some moisture – the remains of a tropical wave from the western Gulf – working up into the southern US. As that low slowly arcs through the lower and mid-Mississippi valley and then off to the east, it will throw come clouds and moisture north through the TN Valley and in to the OH Valley. We don’t think much happens today in far southern Indiana, but there are better chances of scattered light shower action tomorrow and Saturday closer to the river. Again, this will end up being only about 20% of the state, but we can’t rule out moisture there. Everywhere else, we should see partly to mostly sunny skies, normal to above normal temps and good evaporation. This will be a nice 3 day dry window over most of the state.
We are pushing our next batch of rain back just a bit and also dropping the rain totals slightly. We see scattered showers in for Sunday and they linger through parts of Monday. Rain totals combined will be from .1”-.5” with coverage scaled back to 60%. There will be some areas that miss out on rain, and in general, even where rain falls it totals will be easily manageable. We do not think that this leads to a long term interruption in field work and planting. Behind that event we start to clear Monday night, and then should turn out partly to mostly sunny and dry again for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. The map shows rain totals through next Thursday morning.
The end of the 10 day window is a little unsettled now. We continue to look at a dry pattern trying to hold. However, models are increasingly bullish on adding some light shower action for overnight Wednesday night through Thursday. We are taking a “half step” this morning in the forecast, bringing in significantly more clouds for the Thursday period and we will not completely rule out a shower at this point. However, we are stopping short of calling a full out shower event for the entire state. We want a little more consensus in our data before making the move. We do look for a return to fully dry weather later Friday through the start of the following weekend.
The extended period has a wet start with showers and thunderstorms for Sunday and Monday the 16th and 17th. Rain totals can be from half to 1.5” and coverage nearly 100%. Then we are dry up to the following Friday, the 21st, where showers return with totals of .25” to .75” and coverage at 70%.