Our forecast is a little wetter this morning. The moisture from that former tropical wave in the western Gulf that is moving across the country is looking to push a little farther north. Because of that we are having to allow for rain this weekend to arrive a little sooner and be more intense. WE also hare going ahead and adding in moisture for the second half of next week. So, while we still have a bit of dry weather left, the opportunities from here forward pull back some.
Today we turn out partly to mostly sunny and warm across the state. The only exception will be in southern Indiana, from US 50 southward, where we can see scattered showers hold on today. In those areas, we can see up to .25” of shower activity, but we have no rain threats farther north. Temps will be above normal, and we should see good evaporation. Rates will be at maximum of .25” per day. Breezes will also help drying today, and we should see great opportunity for additional forage work too. Tomorrow we see sun followed by clouds. How soon the clouds build will depend on where you are at, but they will be increasing from south to north. If we draw a line from Crawfordsville to Cincinnati, we expect showers to develop south and west of that line Saturday afternoon and evening. Rain totals will be a few hundredths to .25” but there will be moisture around. From there, the showers spread across the rest of the state for Sunday and the first half of Monday. On Sunday, we expect rains of a few hundredths to .7” with 90% coverage. For Monday morning and midday, we can see an additional few hundredths to .25”, but the moisture will be ending through the morning. We turnout partly sunny Monday afternoon.
Tuesday and Wednesday are still dry for next week. Sunshine is expected to dominate, with a return to good drying conditions. The problem will be that we only end up with 2.5 days’ worth of good, dry weather, before rain threats reemerge
Showers develop overnight next Wednesday night and continue into Thursday. Moisture does not look all that impressive, and coverage gives some holes, but we still have to deal with rain threats and lose 24 hours of drying. Rain totals will be a few hundredths to .25” and coverage 60%. After the morning showers Thursday, clouds give way to some brief sun. Friday rains are back, and they look better organized. 90% of the state can pick up .25”-.75” rain totals, and we would not be surprised to see a threat of an inch in a couple of places. The map shows rain potential now through next Friday night.
We finish our 10 day window with dry weather for Saturday the 15th and Sunday the 16th. However, models are well divided on that finish, and that division is more apparent in the extended 11-16 day period as well, with one model putting rain in the forecast pretty much every day of that extended period, and other looking for perhaps 1 front for the entire timeframe. Right now, we are leaning toward a drier look with a threat of precipitation closer to the start of the extended period, and then dry from Tuesday night (18th) through Friday morning. Scattered showers likely return late afternoon and evening on the 21st.