We are leaving the forecast largely alone this morning, tweaking only our rain totals here over the next 48 hours and removing Saturday precipitation. Today we have only scattered light shower action in northern parts of the state, staying pretty much north of I-70. The scattered light shower action will bring a few hundredths to a quarter inch over about 60% of the region from I-70 north. Closer to midnight tonight, heavier rains develop and then continue through tomorrow. Rain will be moderate, and we still will not rule out a few afternoon and night time thunderstorms tomorrow night. However, we are less concerned about widespread thunderstorms, and as such, are lowing our rain expectations for tomorrow. We are putting rain totals for the 2 day period at .25”-.75” with coverage at 90% of the state; updated totals are shown on the map. Temperatures will be mild today and will reach their peak tomorrow. Today we expect highs the 50s and 60s, and tomorrow we will be at least in the 60s over the state, but we are keeping any run at 70 in the southern third of the state, mostly because we think the rain through the day will put a cap on temps, keeping central and northern areas just under 70s…but we will keep our fingers crossed.
Friday we should be done with precipitation, and temps pull back closer to normal. There is a chance of some light snow (lake effect) overnight Friday night in Michigan and down into far northern Indiana…but this will not be anything of consequence there. Nobody else will see it.
Beautiful, dry, sunny weather arrives on Sunday with high pressure dominating. The dry pattern holds all the way through next week into the start of the 11-16 day period next Friday. Temperatures will be near normal through the period. Unfortunately, we can’t keep that pattern going for the balance of the extended window.
Scattered showers are back starting Saturday the 23rd. Those will be mostly from I-70 northward and will produce rain totals of a few hundredths to .4” and coverage at 50%. Then we see additional rain, heavy at times, from Sunday through Wednesday, the 27th. It will be mild for that period, but we can see combined rains of 1-2 inches over that stretch. Colder air arrives at the end of the 16 day window for Thursday the 28th. That may trigger a little bit of morning snow with statewide potential, but no accumulation.