The near term forecast is basically unchanged this morning, but we are making a few tweaks to our forecast toward the end of the 10 day period, and in particular for the extended period.
We are dry and colder today as cold air comes in out of the north behind the front that passed yesterday. Temps today will be normal to below normal for this time of year over the entire state. We see the dry weather continue through the weekend and next Monday, with temps gradually moderating through the period. We should be rather mild next Monday ahead of our next weather system.
That minor front mover through from Monday evening through Tuesday morning and continues to have very little impressive moisture. We are leaving rain totals for that event alone this morning at a few hundredths of an inch to no more than .25” over about 80% of the state. We likely see clouds breaking for a little sunshine in there for Tuesday afternoon, but don’t look for that to be something that stays for any length of time. Much colder air comes in behind that front and ill likely trigger plentiful clouds for Wednesday. We expect to start the day with light snow and flurry action over the northern third of the state, and graduate to clouds, spits, sprinkles and flurries statewide for the rest of Wednesday. Temps will be below normal and the clouds give a very winter like feel.
We do stay cold Thursday but see sun return, and then we moderate our temps next Friday and Saturday.
Our next system arrives next Saturday afternoon and evening, pushing moisture into Sunday the 11th. We expect .25”-.75” rains over the entire state for that period. However, where things get complicated is there at the finish of the 10 day period and into the extended. Computer models seem to be at odds over the progression of moisture, and at times at a loss on timing. We are seeing flip flops back to a wetter period for the 12th-13th-14th. At this time we are going to leave our forecast mostly alone, but allow for .25” to .75” total rain in that 3 day period, and then look for a stronger system for the 16th, as we alluded to yesterday. Now, if the system on the 16th is able to strengthen, it will rob moisture from that 3-4 day window ahead of it…so that is why we are wanting to trend drier for the 12th-15th…because we think that the system on the 16th has the best chance of coming together in a moderating pattern. But, time will tell, and we will revisit this next Monday.
For the time being, we are looking at a fairly nice weekend, and most of next week will be dry. The action Monday night into Tuesday is almost a non-issue.