Another nice day to start the week, but make no mistake about it…this week will feel much more like winter than spring. A strong storm complex moving out of the northern plains, coming through the upper Midwest and great lakes will bring some moisture and significantly colder air to the region. In fact, we will spend most of this week below normal on temps over most of the state. The good news is, we do not see a major amount of precipitation anywhere over the coming 10 days. But, our temperature pattern will not be quite as “nice” as we saw back in February.
Today we see plenty of sunshine across the state, although we will start to see clouds increase this afternoon ahead of our next front. Winds go more southeast this afternoon which may allow for a few more degrees on the topside of our temperatures than what we saw this past weekend. Winds will be somewhat strong this afternoon.
Clouds thicken up this evening, and we see scattered precipitation breaking out over the state. We will see rain to start from around 9pm or so in the western part of the state, and then rain mixes with or changes over to some light snow over the northern third of the state. Scattered light rains continue in central and southern Indiana. We do not expect any significant snow accumulation, but perhaps a fresh coating up north on cars or grassy surfaces. Liquid equivalent precipitation will be limited to a quarter inch or less, and coverage will be about 70% of the state. The best chance of missing out will be over the southern third to quarter of the state.
Colder air rushes in behind the front. That is the reason we have the potential for wet snow in northern Indiana from midnight tonight through tomorrow morning. That cold air will dominate most of the rest of the week. While moisture takes a break tomorrow, clouds likely hold. We can see a little bit of moisture come back in tomorrow night and hold through Wednesday…just enough to trigger some light snow and flurry action over 60% of the state. There will be no significant accumulation, but there will be flakes around off and on through that period. Temps will struggle to break the lower 30s tomorrow, Wednesday and Thursday over the northern half of the state, and 40 can be a stretch down south. The map above shows temperatures compared to normal at midday on Thursday.
Thursday we should see sunshine reappear, and on Friday, we start to see temps moderate just a bit. However, we think that temps still do no better than normal for Friday statewide. Southwest winds developing Friday afternoon will start to bring slightly warmer air up into the state.
Saturday we see a system working by to the south. This will bring clouds to a large part of the state, mostly from US 24 southward, and we will see rain from I-70 down into Kentucky. Rain totals will be .25”-.33” with nearly 100% coverage south of I-70. At this time, the track of the system is more east than north, so we do not think that moisture lifts up into northern Indiana or NW Ohio. But. We are watching it. Everything is gone in southern Indiana by sunset Saturday night.
The rest of our 10 day window looks pretty dry, and south winds moderate temps nicely WE see clouds over southern Indiana on Sunday, but nothing up north, and then full sun and dry weather for next Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure will be in place at midweek next week, and should promote sunshine on into the second half of the week. The high may drop temps just a bit for midweek, as it looks to have Canadian origins. But still, it is a big pattern improvement over this week. We do see a significant front in the extended period around the 17th. The low passes by to the NW and that is where the heaviest precipitation will be (in the upper Midwest) but we still think we have to look for .25”-.75” rain potential across Indiana. We follow that up with another stronger storm complex for the 19th into the 20th.