A warm front lifted through the state overnight. Rain and thunderstorm action today will be mostly in the northern part of the state along and north of the warm front. Draw a line this morning from Auburn to Crawfordsville, and the precipitation will stay north of that line. Thunderstorms can be strong this morning, with plenty of lighting around too. Action should decrease in intensity toward midday. However, but sunset, scattered showers will have spread to the remainder of the state. Those showers remain through tomorrow, Friday and Saturday. Rain totals from here forward will be an additional .5”-2.5” combined into the first half of the weekend, with combined coverage at 100%. The map above shows an updated look at moisture through Saturday night. Temperatures will be above normal today and tomorrow but will pull back with a cold frontal passage tomorrow night through Friday and Saturday, returning to near normal those days.
We dry down some on Sunday, albeit with on-again-off-again clouds around the region. Monday looks similar, meaning we see back to back dry days. That’s all she wrote, though, because rain looks to return for the middle section of the week. Temps to finish this weekend and start next week will be near normal.
Scattered showers develop Tuesday with coverage around 40%, but then they grow into significant showers and thunderstorms for next Wednesday and Thursday. Rain totals for the 3-day period can be from .25”-1” with coverage at 80% of the state. We turn dry again behind that for Friday and Saturday, giving another 2-day dry stretch. However, that means we only see 4 days out of the next 10 that are precipitation free, and the moisture that falls ahead of those dry periods will exceed what can be evaporated over the span of those dry periods. So, no net drying is in our 10-day forecast yet.
The extended period has showers returning Saturday night into Sunday (11th-12th) and then rain for Tuesday into early Wednesday (14th and 15th). However, rain totals seem to be fading just a bit, and we may end up with half an inch or less out of those waves. The pattern is attempting to move toward less moisture in the extended window, but time will tell if we can actually get there.