Mostly sunny skies statewide today and we expect a warmer afternoon. South winds will develop though the day which will fuel the warmer surge. This will be a short lived event, though, as clouds return and bring a chance of moisture with them for tomorrow. Scattered showers for Wednesday will have 50% coverage with only minor amounts, a few hundredths to a tenth or two max. However, if we have that kind of moisture around, that means we are not drying through the day…which does not help our overall situation.
Thursday, we get a mix of clouds and sun back for most of the state, but we end up with increasing clouds over the northern third of the state. These clouds roll in ahead of our next round of precipitation Thursday night. Rain and thunderstorms Thursday night end up hitting 90% of the state from I-70 north. Rain totals can be in a wide range, from .1”-1”, and the heavier totals will be largely dependent on thunderstorms. However, thunderstorms do look to be somewhat frequent over the northern part of the state Thursday overnight. On Friday, action is spread much farther over the region, and therefore coverage is not spectacular. The best chances for moisture will be in east and southeast Indiana Friday afternoon and evening, and we can see up to half an in tops there.
The weekend looks pretty nice, at least for 90% of the time. We are partly to mostly sunny Saturday, and then sunshine starts Sunday before clouds increase. Scattered showers develop over Indiana Sunday evening and continue through the overnight. Moisture totals once again do not look that impressive, at a few hundredths to .25”, but we really don’t need anymore moisture! Scattered showers linger, mostly over southern Indiana on Monday, but have only 30% coverage. The rest of the state turns out partly sunny.
Strong south winds arrive for next Tuesday and will bring in much warmer air. This air will lead to an increase in instability and provide fuel for a significant thunderstorm outbreak Tuesday night. Sun will be followed increasing clouds Tuesday, also signaling a big change. Heavy rain and thunderstorms come in Tuesday evening, continuing through the overnight. Rain totals can be impressive. Models are all over the place right now, but we see potential for half to as much as 3 inches of rain from this event, and severe weather is likely. Buckle up! The map shows 10 day cumulative rainfall potential.
Next Wednesday starts with clouds and some morning showers, but those give way to some sun. additional moisture will likely be limited to a quarter inch or less. We stay partly sunny into next Thursday, but turn cooler.
The extended period still has rain for Friday the 24th, mostly in the afternoon and evening. Totals will be from .2” to .5” and coverage will be 80%. We are dry for the start of the Memorial Day weekend Saturday and Sunday. However, Memorial Day itself now looks wet, with rain and thunderstorms for Monday the 27th, and those run right into Tuesday the 28th. Rain totals run from half to 2” and we expect 100% coverage for the event. Finally, we end the extended period with a partly sunny, dry day for Wednesday the 29th.