An active pattern continues through the next week to 10 days. In fact, we have expanded our active pattern to have rain chances somewhere over the state for 8 of the next 10 days. That’s right, only 2 full dry days are dry over the next 10 days!
Showers and thunderstorms move across the state today. Action kicked off last night with thunderstorms moving in out of Illinois. The shower and thunderstorms today will end up with 80% coverage of the state, and we look for rain totals to be mostly from .25”-1”. Thunderstorms can be strong later this afternoon and tonight in west central and SW Ohio. There is a threat for a severe weather outbrea in these areas triggering some heavy rain. Because of that, we will keep an eye out for some 2”+ rain totals in those areas.
The moisture works south overnight tonight through tomorrow. We are keeping scattered showers over the southern half to third of the state bringing a few hundredths to .4” over 60% of the region from I-70 southward.
Thursday is our first dry day for the state. However, there is some model disagreement on this. We are keeping our forecast dry to stay inline with our previous thoughts, but will watch the way our current front is exiting the region through the day tomorrow, and may update before then.
Scattered showers are back to finish the week. We have rain in the forecast Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Coverage is not all the spectacular each day (40%-50% Friday, 80% Saturday, 60% Sunday) but we all likely see rain at least a couple of times through that period. Combined rain totals will be from .3”-1.25”
Monday features some carryover from the weekend rains. WE can see up to an additional half inch of rain over a good 50% of the state, but the best coverage will likely be farther south and southwest.
Tuesday will be mostly dry, our second dry day over the state. If we want to get cute, we can make an argument that a large part of Wednesday is dry too, but our next wave is on the way for Wednesday, the 23rd. That system brings .1”-.8” over the state, mostly from I-70 north. Coverage over the northern half of the state will be about 80%. However, once again, we have some model disagreement, and there is a chance that this wave is slower in its arrival, so that is another piece of this forecast that will be keeping a close eye on.
Temps over the next 10 days remain mostly normal to above normal. The warmer temps will help to fuel better thunderstorm development…which is one reason some of our precipitation ranges are wide in our forecast. The key takeaway, though, is that we have very very minimal chances of seeing any kind of back to back dry window to work with for field work over the next 10 days. This is a map of cumulative rain totals through the next 10 days. The totals put out by this one model are over done just a bit, especially in southern Indiana, but the idea is clear…we will have an abundance of moisture going forward. We still think we can dry down in the 11-16 day forecast window, as high pressure works in from the NW.