Less rain fell over the state over the weekend, but do not let that fool you…the piper still needs to be paid. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms fell Saturday, but Sunday action was very hit and miss. But in spite of that, we still think that there is a very good chance we still get close to our pre-weekend forecasted totals, with rains that spread over the state today. The best rains move into NW and western Indiana this morning, and then spread east and south. We are looking for .25” to 1” rain totals over 100% of the state today. Rains continue through this evening and will still be attempting to exit east central and southeast Indiana in the morning, after sunrise. While we missed out on expected action this weekend, it is not likely we miss it today, and we will be wet. The map shows precipitation totals through sunrise tomorrow morning.
Drier weather moves back in for the rest of the week. Clouds may take a bit to break through the day tomorrow, but eventually we see good sun in, likely ahead of sunset. Dry weather holds through Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
Scattered showers return Friday night and linger through Saturday and Sunday as we kick off the holiday weekend. Rain totals do not look all that impressive, with .25”-.50” or less the most likely totals, with coverage at 60% Daily coverage will be under 40% for both Saturday and Sunday, but there is enough moisture around that we need to watch it. Memorial Day itself looks drier.
The rest of next week shows little to no organized action. Strong high pressure settles in over the great lakes. With its origin, temps likely stay near normal, and there is not a lot of oppressive heat in for the region. Late in the week and weekend, we can see some scattered showers around for the 2nd into the 3rd, but much like the system before it, action will be limited to half an inch or less. Coverage may be a little bit better, around 70%.
In the extended window, models are in significant disagreement, with the American model trying to keep showers and thunderstorms around through midweek the week of the 4th, and the European model staying drier. We prefer the drier solution, as it fits the emerging pattern here, that has a system followed by a good 4-5 days. If the pattern moistens up, we may have to rethink…but for now, we look for only a minor front bringing scattered showers around the 6th into the 7th.
Temperatures the next 2 weeks will be nearly normal, with a push above normal ahead of each expected front. Warmth at this point does not look to significant enough to warrant concern about strong to severe thunderstorms in the period.