Our forecast is mostly unchanged this morning, as we continue to see way too much moisture around over a large part of the state. We still have rain in the forecast basically every day from now through the holiday weekend, although we are tweaking timing and totals just a bit. From there, we shift into a pattern that has rain around, but no real extended windows in-between systems. Here is the breakdown.
Scattered showers will be around today, but moisture totals are not too bad. We can see a few hundredths to a quarter inch with 40% coverage, mostly north. Southern Indiana sees sunshine and even up north, we see a mix of clouds and sun through the day. Tomorrow scattered showers and thunderstorms will be here with a rain range of a few hundredths to nearly 1 inch. The upper end of the range will be triggered by thunderstorms, but those thunderstorms can happen anywhere. We expect rain coverage for the event to be around 60%. For Sunday we have scattered showers back with 50% coverage, and rain totals of .25”-.5”. Then on Memorial Day itself, Monday, we see likely our smallest threat of rain, a few hundredths to .25” of scattered showers, but coverage only at 30%. A large part of the state should see a mix of clouds and sun for Monday…we just can’t completely rule moisture out at this time.
Tuesday continues to be our partly to mostly sunny, completely dry day. We expect good drying and excellent evaporation for that day. However, the problem is that we only get that one day. Rain and thunderstorms return on Wednesday the 29th, bringing .25”-1” rain totals over 80% of the state. There can be a few lingering showers into Thursday with an additional few hundredths to a tenth or two, but dwindling coverage. With out that, the state turns out partly sunny for Thursday. Friday goes partly sunny, but clouds will be on the increase late.
We finish out the 10 day period next weekend with scattered showers for Saturday June 1. Again, like previous chances, the showers are not all that impressive, a few hundredths to .3”, but any moisture impedes drying. WE see clouds give way to sun for Sunday the 2nd. The map shows rain totals through the next 10 days.
For the extended period, we are shifting some later rains forward, and increasing totals. Rains are back over the area for Monday the 3rd with potential for .25”-1.25” rain totals and 100% coverage. Thunderstorms become more likely for Tuesday the 4th with 1-2” rains and 100% coverage. That will set us back a bit if they come together as we see them right now. WE do put together 2 dry days for Wednesday the 5th and Thursday the 6th with a lot of sunshine and warmer air. Then clouds increase again for Friday the 7th as scattered showers arrive from the south. Those continue to move north through the overnight into Saturday the 8th. However, coverage will be minor enough to also allow for mixed clouds and sun Saturday midday and afternoon.
Temperatures generally stay normal to above normal here through the next week, but we do turn cooler next Thursday and Friday behind next week’s strong cold front. Temps there could be below normal each day. A return to warmer air finishes out the 11-16 day period.