Scattered showers continue to linger over the state today, slowly sagging southward through the day. We do not see any significant thunderstorm threat for the day today, and we don’t think there will be a lot of moisture around out of the showers. Today’s action yields a few hundredths to a quarter inch over about 60% of the state. Showers are back tomorrow with bigger rain totals and better coverage. We expect a quarter to half an inch with coverage at 80%. Then for Thursday rain and thunderstorms arrive and can produce .25”-1.25” over 90% of the state. So, combined over the next three days, we can easily see another half to 1.5” and in some areas, we can push closer to 2 inches. There will not be a lot of opportunity for field work in this period.
Friday should be dry over most of the state. The only exception looks to be down in our far southern tier counties, near the Ohio river. There we can see a few showers Friday midday and afternoon that bring up to .25”. However, the rest of the state is partly sunny and rain free. We continue that pattern into Saturday, with a mostly dry day. Showers hold off until late afternoon and evening Saturday, meaning we get almost 2 days of back to back dry weather for a majority of the state…but it won’t be enough. Showers from Saturday night through Sunday bring rain totals of .2”- .7” to 75% of the state.
Two more dry days back to back come in for Monday and Tuesday of next week. WE see sunshine warm temps and good evaporation. However, 2 days is all we can give you right now. Showers arrive around midnight Tuesday night and we see scattered action through the day Wednesday. That moisture adds up to another .25”-1” over 80% of the state. Everything will be pushing off to the west through next Thursday, but we still can’t rule out an additional .1”-.5”. The map shows 10 day rainfall potential for Indiana.
For the extended period, Friday features a mix of clouds and sun, while next Saturday, the 8th can have a few pop up showers. We are dry for Sunday the 9th and Monday the 10th with partly sunny skies, but showers push up from the south for Tuesday the 11th, bringing rain totals of .1”-.6” to about 70% of the state. The extended period ends with drier air trying to push back in for Wednesday the 12th, but some lingering showers may hold in the south and eastern parts of the state.
So, once again, this forecast does not come down to quantity of rain as much as it does frequency. We are seeing lower rain totals in many areas for each system going forward…the problem is we see systems with only 1-2 days of dryness tops in-between…which does not allow for net drying at all over the long haul. WE continue to think that planting progress will be difficult to see going forward and will depend more on “luck” (being lucky enough to miss out on at least one of these waves), than anything else.