Another hot and dry day today over Indiana, as strong south upper level flow brings the warm air in. However, that strong south flow will bring in less friendly weather starting tomorrow and going through Thursday. Today we should see well above normal temps, although with a few more clouds around, perhaps not quite as warm as Memorial Day yesterday. Still, we should see excellent evaporation rates and minor south winds, all allowing for another day of ripe for fieldwork, if you have some left to do.
The remains of Alberto (sub-tropical storm Alberto, that is) are moving north. They are riding that strong south flow that we talked about earlier. If this storm had been a true tropical storm, feeding off of warm water for its strength, it would have died out shortly after making landfall. However, it was classified as a sub-tropical storm, because it did not need to rely on warm ocean water. In fact, Gulf temps were not overly supportive to the low as it developed. Because of that, what we have is just a powerful, stuck in its own little world storm, that is moving northward. That south flow that is responsible for our huge warm up this past weekend is about to be responsible for brining a powerful low right up into the eastern corn belt. Currently, we project the low to make a beeline for the IL-IN line and move straight north up that line. This positioning would put the heaviest rains (1-3” at least) in over eastern and central IL. In Indiana, we should be looking at showers and a few thunderstorms around from tomorrow morning right on through Thursday. The action will be on again-off again over the state. We are looking at combined 2-day rain totals of .25”-2” with 90% coverage. The upper end of the range will be very limited to about 10% of the state. If the low shifts farther east…that would bring the potential for much higher rain totals in to western Indiana.
The moisture from Alberto coming this soon actually will allow for a drier forecast for later this week. We had been looking at a front for later Thursday through Friday into Saturday. Now, we are just shifting that moisture forward, and therefore seeing a dry Friday and dry start to Saturday. Temps will be near to slightly above normal and we should see some sunshine.
Our next front arrives for late Saturday through Sunday. Moisture is not all that impressive, but we do have scattered showers that will move through here and there. We expect .25”-.5” over 70% of the state as we finish the weekend.
Back to dry weather for Monday through Thursday of next week to finish out the 10-day forecast window. In the 11-16 day extended period, we have a strong low moving through the upper Midwest around Friday night (8th) into Saturday (9th). This likely brings a cold front across Indiana for late the 10th through Monday the 11th. Rain totals are not over the top, but we can see .25”-.6” over about 70% of the state. Then we go back to strong high pressure dominating to finish the period for the 12th and 13th.