Plenty of moisture still in the short term forecast tonight, but we are getting a hint or two about some potential for drier air coming into the forecast farther out. We are not making major changes this morning, as we are looking for a few pieces of confirming data and some model consensus, but let’s say we are tentatively hopeful going forward. However, the short term is still pretty nasty, moisture wise.
Today we have showers and thunderstorms around that can bring .25”-1” to 80% of the state. Tomorrow, showers and thunderstorms can bring .25”-1.5” to 100% of the state. We all are going to get wet and we can’t rule out some stronger thunderstorms either, as the moisture once again streams across the region and the state from west to east, hitting the same areas multiple times.
Friday, we turn out partly to mostly sunny over most of the state, save for a few morning showers in SE Indiana. Those should produce only a tenth or two. Saturday continues the dry, sunny pattern, at least for half of the day up north. We can see scattered showers from US 24 northward bringing up to .25”. But the rest of the state stays partly to mostly sunny. Showers spread over all of the state Saturday night through Sunday, and we end up with another .25”-.75” out of the rains with coverage at 80%. The map above shows rain totals through Sunday night.
Two dry days remain in our forecast to start next week for Monday and Tuesday. We see drier potential for late in the week too, on Thursday and Friday. The sticking point, and what may turn out to be a very key part of our forecast will be next Wednesday. We are keeping showers in our forecast with .25”-.75” potential at this time. However, if we can miss that little event, that would open up the door to a significant dry window…because right now models are shifting a little drier to start off the extended period. So, check back for updates in the days ahead…and we will see if it is possible to take showers out of our forecast for next Wednesday. Right now, it is not.
For the extended period, we see one good threat of rain for Monday the 10th, bringing .25”-1.25” rains and coverage at 80%. The heaviest rains will fall over the southern half of the state. Then we finish out the extended window with another 3 day dry stretch.
So, while we are not going to get too optimistic just yet, we are – as we led with in the opening paragraph – a little more hopeful for some drying as we move through early to mid-June.