There might be just a little bit of promise in this forecast this morning for a few of you across the state. Moisture is still around and still moving through, but we see the chances of moisture sliding just a little farther south! Here is the set up. This morning, showers will be crossing a large part of the state, but will be the most frequent and give the biggest totals over southern and eastern parts of the state. In fact, if we draw a line from just north of Fort Wayne down to Terre Haute, most of the rains will be south and east of that line. We are not ruling action out in the areas to the north and west…just looking for the best rain chances south and east. Rain totals there can be from .25”-.75” with coverage at 80% south of the above mentioned line.
Tomorrow rain is back over the state, and again, we think the best chances will be a little father south. Showers and thunderstorms work through from west to east, but generally will stay south of US 24. Rain totals can be from .25” to 1.25” with coverage at 90% south of US 24. We won’t rule out an isolated shower or two north, but generally, northern locations are able to miss out on this batch too. All parts of the state become partly sunny on Sunday and remain partly to mostly sunny on Monday.
Our next big batch of moisture starts to push in on Tuesday, and we are wet through the middle 3 days of the week next week. Tuesday showers affect mainly areas from I-70 northward, bringing .25”-.5” totals and 70% coverage. Wednesday is just a damp feeling day without a lot of new precipitation. We won’t deny there is a chance for scattered showers, but amounts will be a few hundredths to a quarter inch total, and coverage will be 40% or less. The big rain day next week comes Thursday (or actually overnight Wednesday night through Thursday midday) with rain and thunderstorms producing .25”-1” of rain and 100% coverage. This will bring combined rains to .5”-2” for the event, which is unchanged from our previous forecast. With only 2 dry days ahead of that moisture…we truly see no net drying through the end of next week. We should see partly sunny skies emerge next Friday.
A new wrinkle in the forecast this morning is a cluster of thunderstorms that is trying to surge northeast next Saturday. Clouds increase Saturday morning. Then rain and thunderstorms arrive at midday, coming up from the southwest and spreading across the state. There is a chance of some strong to severe weather embedded in this system. Rain totals can be from half to 1.5” over 80% of the state. This is a new inclusion in the forecast, so we will be looking for data to back up this solution over the weekend and solidify the rain chances. Feel free to hope we are wrong! The map shows cumulative 10 day rainfall potential.
Better news is emerging as we finish the 10 day window and move into the extended period. We see sunshine returning for Sunday the 12th, and then our system for early in the 11-16 day widow has diminished greatly. The way we see things now, there is potential for the week after next two be dry with a mix of clouds and sun from Monday the 13th through Thursday the 16th. That would mean 5 days back to back of dry weather, for our first period of net drying in a long time. There is still plenty that can go wrong here, namely that early week system re-strengthening…but tentatively we are going to try and put a little bit of good news out there. Rain is back for the end of the extended period, with .25”-1” totals likely for the combine period of Friday the 17th through Saturday the 18th.