Showers and thunderstorms around today, after yesterday turned out drier and better than expected in many areas. Today’s action will total anywhere from .25”-1.5” depending on thunderstorm location. The heaviest rains will be in central Indiana, from US 24 south to about 5 miles south of I-70. The rains end in the north late afternoon and evening, but action lingers farther south through the overnight and even into a few hours past sunrise in central Indiana tomorrow. Rain coverage from this event will be 100%.
However, for the balance of the state and the rest of tomorrow, we still expect to turn out partly to mostly sunny, with good evaporation. On Saturday, any early morning sun is replaced quickly by clouds, especially up north. Rains start in northern Indiana Saturday afternoon and spread south through the evening. Showers continue through Sunday. Combined totals for the weekend will be from .25”-.75” over 80% of the state. The map at right shows rain totals through Sunday evening.
No change in the start of next week with two dry for Monday and Tuesday. We see drier potential for late in the week too, on Thursday into Friday. Yesterday we took Wednesday drier and the entire week through the weekend drier as well. This morning, we continue to look for that, although models are still not putting together a fully convincing argument, and some have gone a little wetter again. For now, we are leaving our new drier forecast alone, and will take a look at new data through the day today. We at least need Wednesday to be fully dry to put together a good window. If our forecast holds, that would give at least 5 dry days in a row next week.
The weekend is a point of contention this morning. Models have inserted some moisture back into Friday night and Saturday too. This is a tough call, but we have to at least look for a chance of moisture there, for the time being. There is a chance that moisture misses, like we saw yesterday, but we need to keep the chance in mind, and be ready to go as soon as possible, because of concern about any window closing sooner than we are seeing at the moment.
A new look at the extended period, has us dry now Saturday afternoon through Tuesday morning (11th), but then chances of rain from Tuesday afternoon through Friday the 14th, with combined totals of half to 1” and 80% coverage. However, confidence is low in timing and amounts…there has been such a wet pattern over the past few weeks, even models are having trouble zeroing in on dry breaks in the pattern.