Scattered showers hold over the state today as our frontal boundary finally looks to clear the eastern Corn Belt this afternoon and tonight. Rains are not all that impressive today but will be able to add an additional .25-.5″ of liquid to about 80% of the state. The heaviest precipitation is over this morning, as thunderstorms fired off last night. Clouds hold through most of the day, but we could start to see some clearing in northern and western Indiana shortly after midday. Farther east and south, clearing may not truly begin until closer to evening. Winds will shift to the west and northwest as the front comes through, but still may be a bit strong.
Dry weather dominates the region overnight tonight and tomorrow. We should be clear through Saturday and have sunshine to start the weekend. On Sunday, we see a minor disturbance coming back across the great lakes and eastern Corn Belt. This system does not have a significant amount of moisture with it, but will bring lots of clouds, and can trigger light rains. From late morning Sunday through Sunday night we see a few hundredths to .4″ of rain, and we are expanding coverage to about 70% of the state. This moisture is not impressive, but if we see clouds and even minor moisture on Sunday…what are we not seeing? That’s right…drying.
We are dry with sunshine for Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday. Temps will be working higher through the period, with temps well above normal again on Wednesday ahead of our next front. Through those three days we will see good drying, with low humidity levels and evaporation from .18″-.25″ of moisture per day.
A strong front sweeps across the entire state Thursday. Precipitation starts late Wednesday night, closer to midnight, and then goes through the entire day Thursday. Rain totals can be from .25″-1″ with coverage at 90%. The key to higher rain totals will be thunderstorm development. If the moisture speeds up a bit, and can feed off of warmth from Wednesday afternoon, thunderstorms become more likely.
Friday and Saturday should be mostly dry with clouds giving way to sun on Friday. Temps pull back closer to normal.
The rest of the 10 day period and the extended forecast window shows a relatively active pattern, with a system coming across the region every couple of days. We see scattered showers for Sunday the 13th. This wave so far does not have an exceptional amount of moisture with it, but we are watching to see if it wants to strengthen. At this point, we are expecting .25″-.5″. The rest of the extended period brings another system late the 16th into the 17th with .25-.75″ rains over 70% of the state. Then, closer to the 20th, we see a slower, sagging front coming in from the NW, and it can bring .25″-1″ over 60% of the state.
Temperatures are mostly normal to above normal through this next 2 week period. Excessive heat is not likely, but neither is a major cold air outbreak.