Not many changes in the near term forecast, but from this weekend forward, our outlook is trending just a little wetter. However, the extended period is up for grabs, with models flip-flopping quite badly. Here is our look this morning.
Today will be mostly rain free over the state. We can’t completely rule out a shower or two, but for all practical purposes there is nothing around. We will see a significant warm push through the day thanks to south flow, and that will really increase the instability in our atmosphere as we head in to Thursday. That is where we see the best moisture potential, through the day Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will be here, triggering .25”-1.5” rains over a full 100% of the state. The heaviest rains will be in southern Indiana where we have the best chance of thunderstorms, both strong and garden variety. But there could be another line or two of thunderstorms tomorrow late afternoon and evening in the north, particularly NW IN, so we have to allow for some of those higher rain totals there too. All told, we all get wet to some degree tomorrow.
Friday clouds give way to sun, and colder air returns behind the Thursday frontal complex. We keep sunshine into Saturday as well, but mostly in the morning and midday. Clouds increase again late Saturday afternoon. We have not been able to shake that concern about thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday, and in fact the complex looks to be strengthening this morning. We expect rain and thunderstorms overnight Saturday night through Sunday morning, with rain totals of .25”-1.5” and 80% coverage. The heaviest action again will be in southern Indiana. Clouds mix with some sunshine the rest of Sunday afternoon.
Next week then is mostly dry. Partly to mostly sunny skies will be in over the region Monday, Wednesday and Thursday. A new wrinkle in the forecast allows for scattered showers next Tuesday. The amount of moisture is not that big of a story…we could see up to .25” and perhaps 40%-50% coverage. The story, though, is the fact that the moisture in the area interrupts a potential stretch of dry days and slows drying substantially. Hopefully this moisture dissipates, but right now is looking strong enough to hang around. he map shows total 10 day rainfall potential, if things come together as outlined above. The bulk of the moisture shown on this map would develop Saturday overnight through Sunday.
Another cluster of rain and thunderstorm action comes in late next week for Thursday overnight through Friday morning. Rain potential come in around .25”-1” with 80% coverage. Friday afternoon starts to see some clearing.