A few tweaks to the forecast today, but we are not changing the total number of events coming through. Our biggest event is here today. After seeing temps spike yesterday, we have truly energized the atmosphere and given plenty of ammunition for today’s front to shoot off fireworks. Rain and thunderstorms will cross the state, and we continue to see rain totals from .25”-1.5”. The upper end of the range will be heavily dependent on thunderstorms, but we see multiple areas of strong thunderstorm development today from north to south…so this will not be a regional thing…but more of a location thing when it comes to thunderstorm development. Statewide coverage of rain today will be 100%. Thunderstorms end up hitting 60% of the state, so our heavy rain potential will follow. Everything should be done and exiting the state by midnight. Or shortly thereafter.
Friday, we see a mix of clouds and sunshine, but it will be cooler behind the frontal boundary passage. There should be good evaporation, although we may not quite attain maximum levels. Winds will be strong from the north and northwest. Clouds build again on Saturday, and our next round of precipitation arriving faster. Showers develop Saturday afternoon and move through from there through the overnight, ending near or shortly after sunrise on Sunday. Rain totals will be from a few hundredths up to .6” and we do not see any thunderstorm threats. Coverage will end up being 80% of the state.
We return to dry weather Sunday and stay that way through Tuesday. Sunshine should dominate through that period, with clouds building late Tuesday. We are pushing our next system back a day, arriving Wednesday, and bringing scattered showers. WE can see a few hundredths up to .4” over 90% of the state, and the upper end of that moisture range will be skewed to the north. Dry weather with partly to mostly sunny skies finishes out the 10 day window for Thursday, Friday and next Saturday. Temps will be near normal. The map shows rain totals through the next 10 days.
In our latest look at the extended 11-16 day window, we remain confident that we have a couple of dry days to start. Showers arrive late on the 20th into the 21st and are on track for .25”-1” with coverage at 70%. We may see a few showers linger into early the 22nd with 30% coverage, mostly north. Then dry for the balance of the 22nd and the 23rd. Rain and thunderstorms are back for the 24th. There we can see half to 1.25” rains with coverage at 80%. Temps for the extended period should be normal to slightly above.