A better weather pattern will begin to emerge over the state today. After yesterday’s wintry mess, we should see some improvement almost immediately today. Yesterday’s main surprise was the northern extent of sleet and ice. While we expected a rain-snow mix, and by association some potential ice in the south and central, seeing ice all the way north of US 24 was a bit of a surprise. However, as sun comes out today, even if it is interspersed with clouds, we should see ice melt in many areas. Temps likely do not move in a major way today, although we should see some slight warming in southern Indiana.
A weak clipper like disturbance moved across the northern plains yesterday, and toady will meander through the upper Midwest, down to the I-80 corridor. This weekend that weak system will continue to move south and east. This will spread more clouds into the state for the both Saturday and Sunday. However, we still think that precipitation will not be an issue, as the system still looks to be dying as it arrives. With cold air in place, it would not take much to have a flurry develop, but we think those chances are small. We won’t rule out a flurry or two on Sunday, mainly over the northern half of the state, but coverage will be 20% or less. This really is a non-issue, and we should not see any significant threat to a drier pattern. Sunshine is back for next week, and we keep dry weather in here for Monday through Thursday. There will be no problems anywhere in the state for Thanksgiving travel, and temps will even start to climb by Thanksgiving Day. This will be our best dry window, and our best opportunity to get harvest finished before thanksgiving.
We are keeping a chance of rain in the forecast for next Friday, but we may have to delay it slightly, seeing showers more in the afternoon and evening. Moisture totals remain unimpressive, at a few hundredths to .3” over about 70% of the state. Next Saturday is dry, and then moisture returns for Sunday the 25th. This moisture may linger in to the very early morning of the 26th. We are looking at rain (scattered showers) giving .25”-.5” over 60% of the state.
The extended forecast keeps one threat of rain for the 28th and 29th. The rest of the period is dry. For the 28th-29th we see .25”-.5”. Coverage can be nearly 90% of the state. That system remains on track to bring all rain, as temps remain above normal. However, behind it, colder air starts to race back in. We should be back below normal over the region as we transition into early December.