Temperatures will moderate today, especially this afternoon, as south winds develop across the state. Clouds will be thickening through the day, but rains likely hold off until late this afternoon and more so this evening. We see the rains picking up intensity overnight and through the day tomorrow. We are increasing the top end of our forecast just a bit, putting rain totals at .25”-2” over 100% of the state from tonight through about 4 am Sunday morning. However, we do not think the 2 inch rain totals will be as widespread as this model map suggests. We think 1”-1.25” rain totals are the better call for widespread heavy rains. The map shows cumulative precipitation for this event through sunrise Sunday.
We turn colder for Sunday with strong northwest winds coming in behind the frontal complex. While we can’t promise full sun on Sunday (clouds likely linger in the wake of the front, at least a little bit), we can say it will be dry through the day, and that dry pattern holds all the way through next Saturday. Temperatures will be bouncing all over the place in that period, staying below normal for Monday, but moderating Tuesday to near and slightly above normal levels. Cold air returns for Wednesday and most of Thursday, but we are making a change in our temperature forecast from there. Temps begin to moderate again late Thursday (thanksgiving) evening and will warm to above normal levels to finish the week and weekend. The cold Canadian air that was projected to hold through the holiday weekend has weakened and will be pushed back farther north.
Scattered showers are in for next Sunday, the 26th. We see .1” to .4” rain totals over 80% of the state.
In the extended period, we continue to see mostly dry weather for the 27th through the 30th. Our next frontal boundary starts to impact the state around the 1st of December. Precipitation totals remain unimpressive, so we will stay at .25” or less.