Sunny, windy and dry today with southwest winds developing over the state. These winds will be gusty, averaging 15-30 mph through the afternoon. These winds will be in advance of a cold front that comes through late this afternoon and evening.
That front tonight looks to bring a lot of clouds, but we cannot quite dismiss precipitation threats. We may see a few spits, sprinkles or wet snowflakes up through midnight over about 40% of the state. Most of the areas that see something will be north of I-70. The moisture available is only a few hundredths to at most .1”…so even if something falls, it will not be anything of consequence. As we said yesterday, the bigger story will be a dramatic fall off in temps again, with tomorrow and Thanksgiving Day. Winds shift back to the northwest tomorrow but will still be brisk.
Temps climb again late Thanksgiving night and on through the rest of the week and weekend. Temps Friday will be buoyed by strong southwest winds returning to the region. We should see above normal highs for Friday and Saturday statewide. Again, we go through these temp changes with no precipitation. That means we see dry weather for the coming the coming 6 days including today.
An upper level low crosses Michigan on Saturday and may throw some clouds down into northern parts of the state. This moves any threat of moisture forward from Sunday into Saturday, although we think those threats are very minimal at this time. We won’t rule out a few spits or sprinkles Saturday afternoon in northern Indiana, but that is it. We are drier and turn colder again Sunday and Monday.
The next good threat of precipitation develops at midweek next week, if at all. Models this morning are not nearly as enthusiastic about the midweek system as they were 24 hours ago. We will keep a few scattered showers in our forecast for the 29th until we see a consensus that we need to go drier. However, if the next two fronts whiff on us (tonight and Saturday/Sunday), then the atmosphere clearly is showing that it is just too dry for a minor front to produce anything. At this time we will leave our rain totals for next Wednesday at .2”-.6” of rain over 80% of the state, but believe we will trend this forecast drier in the days ahead (we have a drier atmosphere bias at this point). Either way, wet or dry, this front should move through relatively quickly.
No changes for the extended period. We get active in December with a nice strong front arriving late the 1st and lingering through the 3rd. This system has moisture potential of .25”-.1” with coverage at 100% of the state. Warm air should be in for most of the event, but we won’t rule out action ending as wet snow because cold air looks formidable on the backside of the front. We follow that with a dry upper-level high-pressure dome holding over the state through the 6th, keeping cold air in over the region. However, there is a very strong low looking to exit the central plains after the 6th, and it could be a threat for the 7th and 8th. Time will tell.