Partly sunny and dry today, tomorrow and Friday. We should see some warming each day. Temperatures should be above normal tomorrow and stay there through the weekend. Clouds will start to build in over western and southwestern parts of the state Friday afternoon.
Rain arrives by midnight Friday night and continues through Saturday. Rain totals look to be around .25”-.75” with coverage at 100% of the state. Rain will be done by evening. We will be dry through the overnight Saturday and into midday on Sunday. Rain returns Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Models have developed some dramatic disagreement on this wave, with the European cutting back on rains, while the GFS not only stays strong with liquid equivalent moisture, but it also ramps up and pushes for freezing rain and snow! Right now, we believe the timing of the cold air will not support freezing rain or even much snow, especially on Sunday, but we will put moisture totals at .25”-.75” for the state again, with coverage around 80%.
Light snow can develop on the back side of that wave for Monday and we won’t rule out a few flurries even Tuesday, with the highest likelihood each day north of US 24. Clouds mix with sun for next Wednesday, and then we have a minor clipper system that brings some snow potential to the state again next Thursday, where we could see a coating to an inch or two over the state with 60% coverage. We finish the 10-day window with a dry day next Friday.
For the extended period, we look much more active. Our thoughts of a batch of moisture arriving around December 1 and attempting to strengthen are being buoyed by some recent computer model runs. We could conceivably see rain (and even a bit of wet snow mixing in) from the 1st through the 3rd. Moisture totals can be from .25”-1”. Moisture returns for the 5th, with another .25”-1.5” of liquid equivalent moisture possible. The question will be “when does the cold air arrive”? models are split, and the American Model really wants to ramp up some significant snows in early December so stay tuned.
Precipitation type tips mother nature’s hand as we go forward. Yes, we will be above normal later this week and weekend, but a significant cool down comes after midweek next week with strong Canadian high-pressure moving in. Then in the extended period, we have a secondary high looking to move right on in out of the upper Midwest…That comes after the big-time precipitation early in December and should put us on a track for normal and below normal temperatures through the first half of December.