Clouds will be on the increase over the state today as a cold front edges closer. This front likely slows as it moves in, and we still do not think we see any serious precipitation until tomorrow. Scattered showers will be in for most of the state in an off and on the matter through the entire day tomorrow, finally exiting to the east ahead of sunset. We are holding with rain totals from a few hundredths to no more than .3”, and the best rains likely fall over central and southern Indiana. Coverage will be around 80%.
Behind the front, we have drier weather back for a good 4 days. We cool off on Friday but should see a slow build in temps through the weekend. The biggest hint of our being in a cooler air mass behind the front will be morning lows, as we should dip below freezing Friday morning, Saturday morning and even in a few spots Sunday morning. Daytime highs will not be too far away from normal (which is still a good 15 degrees cooler than what we saw yesterday if you want to compare).
Next week will have a tricky start. We have a significant low developing in the plains for the finish of the weekend (Sunday night) and start next week. This low split into 2 “heads” and lifts east and north. A warm front out of the northern low will bring scattered showers to great lakes Monday morning. Most of this moisture will be in Michigan and Wisconsin, but we can see some clouds and a bit of fringe action trying to get into extreme northern and NW Indiana Monday morning. Rains will be under .25” and coverage minor. However, we can’t overlook it. Strong southwest flow will take temps significantly higher through the balance of Monday ahead of the arrival of the southern low and front for Monday night and Tuesday. Rains look to be heavier in that time frame and will have more coverage. For now, we will project .25”-.75” over about 60% of the state. However, those totals are dependent on no development of thunderstorms. If storms develop, they likely would be in central and southern Indiana, and it would open the door to some 1”+ rain potential. This storm looks strong. And, the movement is faster with the track much farther east than it was 2 days ago. So, rains are likely to start the week, but exact specifics are still subject to change.
The front may stall just south of the Ohio River for midweek. This exactly where it stalls will be key, as we expect more moisture to move up the front with waves of thunderstorms being fed by good flow off of the Gulf. Right now, we are keeping those thunderstorms out of the state on Wednesday…but if the front stalls in southern Indiana…that would mean we have to bring those thunderstorms right up in as well. Cooler temps settle in over the state on Wednesday behind the front.
Slowly we dry out on Thursday and Friday with Canadian high pressure easing into the western corn belt. We never really fall under the influence of the high, but we see it blocking any moisture or systems coming in from the west and northwest.
In the extended forecast period we have a minor upper-level low moving over the great lakes for Saturday the 9th, bringing .05”-.5” rain potential to 60% of the state. Then the rest of the period from the 10th through the 14th we see a somewhat cloudy, gray period, with no new rain, but also not a lot of sunshine. A somewhat typical late fall early winter sky pattern is expected. A large upper-level trough will be sitting over the eastern third of the country. Even though we think the high pressure to be here, especially the 14th, it won’t be especially dominating, and we think that the flow pattern is not one that is conducive to a fully sunny, dry pattern.