A dry day to start the week here today as strong southwest flow keeps temperatures above normal. We should see good sunshine through the day over most of the state with good dry down and low humidity values.
Precipitation works across the state tomorrow but does not look as impressive this morning as it did late last week. We expect scattered showers with about 60% coverage. Rain totals will be from a few hundredths to a quarter of an inch for the most part but will be enough to slow harvest progress a little bit. All action should be done by sunset, if not before. We are dry for Wednesday.
Thursday rain returns with showers and a chance for a few thundershowers. The action may wait until closer to midday to really kick off, but once it does, rain continues through Friday. Rain totals can be from a tenth to 7 tenths with coverage at about 70% of the state. There will still be plenty of holes in the rain.
Dry Saturday. Then on Sunday, we do have a few showers trying to sag southward out of the Great Lakes and Michigan. These can work down to around the US 24 corridor and would bring up to half an inch of rain. The southern two-thirds of the state really do not see any significant threat out of this event. The entire state is dry for next Monday.
A strong front looks to arrive near the end of the 10-day window for next Tuesday and Wednesday. This front is a slow-moving front and over the 2-day period can bring rain totals of a quarter to 1.5 inches over 90% of the state. This front also likely brings a cooler batch of air back to the region. The map at right shows rain totals through next Wednesday.
That front at the end of the 10-day period also will be the seed for a very wet 11-16 day extended period. We are seeing signs that the front stalls out draped over the state, and it may be responsible for precipitation all the way from next Thursday through the following Monday (the 15th). Rain totals combined over that 5-day window will be from half to 1.5” with coverage at 100% of the state. We then are drier, but still cool for the 16th and 17th.
Temperatures will likely average 10-20 degrees above normal now through midweek next week. We really do not see any cool down until we get behind the front that starts to bring moisture at midweek next week. But, if that front truly does stall out…we could see a significant temperature spread across the state through the first half of the 11-16 day window. Still, with the warm air here, that would aid dry down in between moisture events and gives hope that harvest can move forward.