A strong cold front moves into the state today. This front is the one that has been responsible for the heavy rains seen out west over the past 3-4 days. The main low is lifting northeast and will miss us to the west. That, along with the fact that the system is fully mature and has been raining itself out up to this morning, point to rain totals from .25” to 1.5”. Rains arrive fairly quickly today, and we should see action spread over the state from mid-morning into early afternoon. Then, rains continue through this evening and through the midnight hour. We should see action finally out of 90% of the state by sunrise tomorrow, although there can be some lingering showers in far southeastern parts of the state into mid-morning tomorrow. The upper end of the range, if it happens, will set up most likely over the northern half of the state, where we think we can see several lines of stronger showers and even a few thunderstorms. However, our concern for strong to severe weather has dropped to pretty low levels this morning. We think that most of the state will be in the lower half to two-thirds of the above-expected rain range.
Dry Thursday and Friday. Clouds are back Friday night into Saturday, and while we think that big rain chances are unlikely, we would suggest keeping an eye out for a bit of renegade moisture around midnight Friday night into very early Saturday morning. Dry the rest of Saturday and the first part of Sunday. We still think we can see showers return later Sunday afternoon and hold through Monday. This front is bringing another leg of cooler air, and because of that, it will be pretty easy to wring out some moisture. We are expecting .25”-.5” rains over 70% Sunday late afternoon through Monday. Those rain totals are slightly lower than our forecast yesterday. The map at right shows combined rain totals through next Monday evening. This will encompass today’s wave, any Friday night action and then the moisture late Sunday through Monday.
Dry behind that front through the rest of the week next week. The colder air coming behind the front on Monday means we may be looking at our first good frost event across the entire state Tuesday morning. We are seeing signs that most of northern Indiana and even a few areas south of I-70 could bottom out around 32 degrees next Tuesday morning, so be aware of that. The map below shows minimum temps for next Tuesday. The dryness extends through the first part of the extended 11-16 day period as well, as we stay dry through the 21st. The front we have been watching in the extended period is picking up just a bit of speed and now looks to arrive around the 22nd, with up to half inch rain potential and 75% coverage. Behind that front, we go back under the influence of high pressure and should be dry through the 25th.
Temperatures cool off to near normal levels for the rest of this week after the frontal passage today. The front for late weekend and Monday brings another leg down in temps and may lead to our first frost, as outlined above. Then the rest of the forecast period through the 25th sees mostly near to slightly below normal temps statewide.