We are leaving our forecast pretty much alone this morning. That means we continue to see generally dry weather from today, through next Saturday, the 27th, and we only have 1 significant threat of rain between now and the start of November. Now, we still have the same concern we mentioned yesterday about some building cloud cover late Friday afternoon and overnight into this weekend. What we see here is a nice batch of moisture exiting the southern plains Friday and moving east/northeast across MO, far southern IL and then across areas along and south of the Ohio River. In fact, near the river, we would not rule out a tenth or two. However, there is a strong low that sets up near Hudson Bay overnight Friday, and a cold front from that low, going back to the southern moisture, will work through the eastern corn belt.
Our concern is mostly for clouds along the front, but we will be looking for some chances of spit and sprinkle action Friday overnight. Lingering cloud cover through Saturday into early Sunday also is a watch point for us this morning. At this time of year, as the air cools, it does not take nearly as much to squeeze out a bit of moisture…so that is why we are approaching things this way. If moisture does develop, totals would be small enough to basically be a heavy dew, so that is why we still think talk of a generally dry pattern is the best way to look at this. Dry air with full sunshine is in for all of next week.
Rains move into the state a little faster now with our next event. We think we may see showers develop Saturday evening, the 27th, and then go into for next Sunday, the 28th. We can see clouds linger into Monday, the 29th, but the rain should leave faster, since it arrives faster. Rain totals can be from .25”-1” with coverage at 80% of the state. The map shows a snapshot of action for Saturday overnight. Then, we return to dry, mostly sunny weather behind that event for the 30th and 31st.
Our temperature outlook is also unchanged. We are mostly normal to below through the next 10 days, and then see temps go to slightly above normal levels starting next Saturday and holding through the turn of the month.