The forecast this morning presents a bit of a challenge. We are locked in on the short term: Sunny, windy, dry weather holds for today and tomorrow, just like we have seen the past few days, and just like we have been talking about. In fact, we have no changes to the arrival of our next front, and what happens from midweek next week on. 8 out of the next 10 days we have a very solid handle on and our forecast is locked in. However, the remaining two days hold the challenge. Those 2 days are Monday and Tuesday.
Our next front is still on the way for Sunday. The front looks slightly stronger in terms of rain totals it brings. We are raising our rain estimates to .2”-.7” over 90% of the state. The rains kick off shortly after sunrise, and go into the evening/overnight as the front sweeps through from west to east. This will provide a break in our harvest over most of the state. The map above shows cumulative rain total potential over the state through Monday morning.
Behind the front, we have some diverging information to deal with. Our forecast continues to be for no new precipitation for Monday and Tuesday. There might be a lingering shower or two Monday morning, particularly in eastern and southeastern parts of the state, but our thought process to this point is that the front will sweep through just like a normal cold front would. Most models agree with our thoughts. However the European model has been consistently increasing rains and bringing a stronger, second wave of action in for Monday, even into Tuesday. If that model turns out to be right, that means we can see well over an inch of rain, and in some cases nearly 2 inches of rain before the front is done. We just can’t bring ourselves to that conclusion at this time. We will update you early Monday morning here on the website if the rain looks to be longer lasting or yield more moisture. It is a challenge. The European takes the low pressure center right over Ohio Monday and Tuesday, while the other models take the low down into the Tennessee Valley and Deep South. We are keeping the forecast dry this morning, in line with our previous thinking through the week. But wanted to make you aware of where our forecast could go wrong, since we are going into the weekend on a full tilt harvest binge.
Even with no new rain for Monday and Tuesday, we think that clouds will play a larger role. That will keep drying limited to start the week. The coldest part of the air mass coming in behind this weekend’s front will be here Wednesday, and we expect temps to be actually a bit below normal for midweek. However, as sunshine returns for the second half of the week, temps will rise again, and we should be mostly normal to above normal for the rest of the 10 day period (this weekend and next week) outside of next Wednesday. WE have dry weather all the way into the start of next weekend.
We have a minor front coming in for next Saturday afternoon. Moisture totals look minor at only a few hundredths of an inch to a tenth or two. That front will pass overnight Saturday night into earl Sunday, but we should see sunshine coming in quickly behind the front.
No change to the extended forecast period this morning. A drier pattern holds for most of the 11-16 day forecast window at this time. A minor upper level system may pop up over the western Corn Belt around the first of the month, but our next system likely holds off until closer to the 4th.