Our cold front slowed in its eastward progress significantly over the weekend, and that is not really a good thing for us this morning. Well, it is a good thing in that we were able to squeeze a completely dry Sunday out of the change, but a slower front is a stronger front for us. And a stronger front brings more rain potential. Today we have rains lasting longer and rain totals higher as this front finally passes by. We are putting rain totals at .5”-1.9” over 90% of the state. Thunderstorms are what we need to watch today, especially this morning. Those will push the rains to the highest totals. Rain can continue through the entire day, but will taper off after sunset. The map above shows the potential rain totals cumulative through tomorrow morning.
Behind the front we keep a cooler, damp feeling pattern around, even though we are not looking for a lot of additional precipitation. We think the best place to see lingering action will be farther east over eastern Ohio, if anywhere. But, there will be plenty of clouds around, perhaps a few spits and sprinkles, and much cooler air funneling in. This combination will lead to very little drying through midweek, even though the rains quit tonight. The coldest part of the incoming air mass will be over us on Wednesday.
Once we transition to the backside of the cold air dome, we should see some south winds start to develop. However, warming will be only slight. WE should see sunshine for Thursday and Friday, but expect our next front to sneak in early on Saturday. This front does not have a bunch of moisture with it, but still can bring a few hundredths to a tenth or two to about 60% of the state. This also slows drying progress once again. Colder air returns behind that front, and we should be looking at our first run at a good hard frost over the northern half of the state Sunday morning. Temps will push down into the lower 30s over northern Indiana, with freezing temps possible down to I-70. However we do not expect a hard freeze at this time: widespread 20s are NOT likely for this first go-around. The map above shows Sunday morning temps just past sunrise (Saturday night lows).
The rest of next week looks dry, Monday through Friday. We are keeping an eye on the set up late Friday, as there may be a few scattered showers that rotate through while a better disturbance passes by over the Great Lakes, but at this time things do not look all that impressive. However, later in the extended window, we have a powerful storm moving in for the 5th and lingering into the 6th. The system has rain potential up to 1 inch of liquid. Temperatures still are above normal, slightly, so we expect rain. But, the circulation is looking to pull down some pretty cold air behind it. That may be where we see our first good hard freeze over a large part of the state.