No change in our outlook this morning. We remain dry through at least Friday morning in all areas of the state. Models have some disagreement over how Friday turns out, but are in agreement on the rains for this weekend. Once again, the big rains for next week are up for some debate, but all data points toward some action.
Temps today will not be quite as warm as yesterday, and temps tomorrow through the end of the week pull back into the upper 40s and low 50s. We see full sunshine through Thursday.
Friday brings full sunshine in the north, but we can’t rule out clouds building in the south. The European model tries to develop some scattered showers Friday afternoon and Friday night from US 50 southward, while the American model stays dry. We think that clouds with no precipitation is the most likely outcome currently, thanks to a very dry atmosphere that develops through the rest of the week. However, we do see showers over the entire state for Saturday and Sunday, scattered through each day. Combined rain totals will be from a few hundredths to .4” with 80% coverage. The map above shows combined rain totals out of the system this weekend.
On Monday we see mostly sunny skies develop in the south, but we stay cloudy north of I-70 and we can’t rule out a few scattered showers to start the work week in NE Indiana. We follow that up with a sunny and dry Tuesday.
Rain remains on track for next Wednesday. The European model moves the system through quickly, while other models suggest a longer tail on this system, with more rain Thursday. We will leave rain totals mostly under half an inch, but will expand the upper end of the range, looking for .2”-.7” over 90% of the state. We may have to boost totals if rains keep good intensity into Thursday.
Dry for next Friday, the 2nd and the start of the weekend Saturday morning. Then, however, clouds increase, and we have another strong low coming in from the west for late Saturday the 3rd and going through Sunday the 4th. This system looks to be rather rain laden, but we are pulling back on rains just a bit, because we think thunderstorm potential is lower than our initial thoughts. We are putting rain totals at .25”-1” over the entire state. We continue to look for another system going toward the 7th with .25”-1” potential, and then another front around the 11th, making the first part of November very active and wet.