We feel more confident about Friday this morning. Sunshine will mix with clouds from I-70 northward, but we are going to have to watch for scattered showers in southern Indiana. The rain totals are not all that impressive but could be up to a quarter of an inch. Then we see clouds combined with hit and miss light precipitation off and on through the weekend, both Saturday and Sunday. We are pulling back on moisture even further, though, for the Saturday-Sunday period, looking at only a few hundredths to a tenth or two, and there will be plenty of holes…coverage will be at 60% or less. Clouds do linger into Monday and we can see an additional shower or two. We may not see a lot of moisture through the period, but we definitely do not see good drying weather this weekend through Monday.
Dry Tuesday. We are also going to extend dry weather through most of Wednesday, as the next system looks to slow in its arrival. Rains start overnight Wednesday night and go through Thursday. We are keeping initial rain totals at .2”-.7”, and the only change in the forecast for this event is the delayed start.
However, we are looking at making some major changes to the end of the 10-day forecast period. Some data suggests that a second wave of moisture move in on Friday, nearly doubling our rain totals. However, if this happens, it would be robbing moisture from our previously forecast system at the start of the extended period, late the 3rd and the 4th. In reality, the combined moisture from the two events will be nearly the same; this forecast becomes more about timing. The map above shows combined rains through the entire 10 day period. It would suggest the heaviest rains still wait until closer to the 3rd and 4th. We will be looking at this period closely in over the next 36 hours.
Either way, behind that event, we do go more active for the first half of November. We have another system on the 7th, and one on the 11th both of which can bring .25”-1” rains. The true good harvest window looks to close at the end of this week, or at least at midweek next week at the very latest.