We are shifting the forecast to a more active pattern this morning. Most of these changes do not affect the short-term forecast through the weekend, but they do bring more moisture in for next week.
We are off to a chilly start this morning. But, we are completely done with moisture today, and may actually see the clouds give way to some brightening and sunshine through the day. Still, we have strong west and northwest flow, bringing in cold air, and it will keep significant drying at bay. We may see some patchy frost potential tonight. We had temps cool enough for frost last night with the clouds, so if the clouds break up today and we see at least partial clearing tonight, it will give a better chance of patchy frost. Temps likely will be in the 31-35 degree range…so we are not calling a full out killing frost this time around…but there will be some plants that don’t like it very much!
Dry with some sun tomorrow and Friday. Our next front shows up starting Friday night and goes through Saturday mid to late afternoon. This front still looks on track to bring .25”-.75” spots of rain, and we have a minor concern about some outside chances at 1” in a few spots. However, a large part of the state will be half an inch or less. Coverage of rain will be a full 100% of the state.
We are dry behind the front for Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. As we have been talking about all week, there is the potential for a good frost Sunday morning, and again Sunday night into Monday morning. The potential severity of any frost will rest solely on how much clearing we see in over the state as the Saturday front leaves.
We start making changes to our forecast for next Tuesday night and Wednesday. Our next front is in for that period, a fairly fast moving wave that has a potential of bringing .25”-.6” to the entire state. The bulk of the action will be done and gone by late Wednesday afternoon. Cooler air dives in behind again. After a couple of dry days, we have another front for the 4th. Rains of .2-.7” are likely over 80% of the state.
In the extended period, the next strong front to sweep out of the plains and through the Corn Belt may arrive here closer to the 8th and 9th. The system could bring up to .75” to the state. If that timing holds, that 3-4 day period in-between systems may end up being the largest potential window for field work that we will we have. However, the trend of the pattern here recently is to speed up systems as they move out of the far extended window into a nearby period.
So, to recap our changes, this morning, we are looking at more fast-moving, closely spaced systems over the next 10 days to 2 weeks with colder air and plentiful moisture. That means we will have trouble getting harvest ramped back up probably as we finish October and transition into November. A nice graphical representation is this 10-day cumulative precipitation map for the state…keep in mind that most of this come in spurts every 2-3 days! Oh…and don’t forget multiple frost chances…meaning our growing season is likely completely done sometime in the next 2 weeks…and perhaps sooner rather than later