Another chilly start, but we have sun on the way today! And, we should see winds start to shift around to the south later this afternoon and tonight, allowing temps to moderate more as we finish the week.
Sunshine will be here to start the day tomorrow as well, but we see our next front accelerating. Now, last weekend, the front slowed, and we told you that was not a good thing for us. The opposite is true here. An accelerating front means that we have chances of seeing our rain totals diminish by the time all is said and done. We think the front will start to slip across the northern and western parts of the state already tomorrow afternoon, but may not pick up rains until tomorrow evening and overnight. Rain will be done by mid-morning Saturday. For now, we will leave rain totals at .25”-.75” rains but will drop coverage to at least 80%. It may be lower, as we think that the NW quarter of the state may end up largely missing out on the rains. The front may not be able to tap into moisture until it is already through that part of the region.
Dry behind the front for the balance of Saturday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. We continue to look for a chance of frost Sunday morning, but temps are only going to be in the 33-36 degree range in many places, meaning we are not categorizing it as a “hard” frost at this point. There can be pockets of colder air, but the clouds may hold just enough to keep us from truly bottoming out there .In fact, we think there will be decent clouds hanging around Monday and Tuesday as well,
We keep a trough in the forecast for next Tuesday night and Wednesday. Moisture does not look to be as impressive on this most recent model run, but in this pattern, where we see a trough or front sweeping through every few days, and where the pattern looks most active over the Great Lakes, we find ourselves hesitant to talk the wave down at this point. So, we will keep scattered showers in for midweek with a potential for .05”-.6” to about 80% of the state. This should be a fairly fast moving little wave. And, the risk here is that it speeds up, and we actually see moisture trend more toward Tuesday. We are keeping our eyes on it.
Dry for the balance of the week, but cool, and we have additional threats of frost. The next front moves into the region around the 4th with minor rain chances up to half an inch. A stronger front moves in for the extended period, right now looking at the 8th and 9th. The system could bring up to .75” to the state. No significant changes this morning. The most suspect part of the upcoming 10 day forecast is midweek next week…if there is a period ripe for changes…it will be there.