Our next front is moving quickly into the state today. The initial move will not have any moisture with it and even cloud development will be sluggish. We think that we will end up seeing decent sunshine to start the day, with clouds really taking over the late morning. By midday, the front will be near a line from Fort Wayne to Terre Haute. That will be where we start seeing moisture truly develop. At this time, we look for most precipitation today to develop east and south of that line, with .25” to .75” rain potential there. A good chunk of NW Indiana and part of west-central Indiana have a good chance of missing out on precipitation associated with this front.
The front is really trucking through…so we look for all precipitation to be done by sunrise tomorrow morning. This will lead to a dry weekend, with a mix of sun and clouds for tomorrow and better sun on Sunday. A weak upper-level disturbance dragging across the Great Lakes may push a few clouds into the state as we work through Monday afternoon, but for now, we see no serious precipitation threat until we get to midweek next week and the arrival of our next front. So, with the accelerating front here in the short term today, it ends up working in our favor to produce 4 dry days in a row, which is not something we were thinking was possible a few days ago.
That next front arrives Wednesday and will have .15”-.5” spots of rain with it. Those totals are down slightly. But, coverage remains at 80% and may end up being just a bit more. The moisture pushes up into the region form the SW but will produce mostly light, gentle rains through the day. An action is done by nightfall, and we will see colder air and plenty of clouds in behind the system.
The clouds will slowly break up Thursday of next week, and the dry weather holds through Saturday, with sun dominating as the week closes and the weekend starts. Clouds will increase next Saturday as a strong front builds in from the west over IA, MO, and IL. The map above shows 1-week rain totals that include the front today and the front for midweek.
That front comes through to start the extended period, pushing the first round of rain in for Sunday the 5th, and there likely is a second round that comes as well late the 6th into the 7th. Combined rain totals will be from half to 1.5”, and the heavier push of rain is likely to come with the second wave. The first push shows characteristics of slowing or running out of gas over IL, so the timing will be the key thing to watch. We have had a storm complex in this time window for most of the past week. Fine-tuning its arrival will be where we go from here. The rest of the extended period looks dry from the 8th through the 11th, although we won’t completely rule out a few showers making a run at locations close to the Ohio River around Friday the 10th.
Temps through the upcoming period look to be near normal. After the solid frost of yesterday morning, the upcoming cool pushes behind the fronts do not look to be that much cooler than what we have already put on the books. The extended pattern though mid-November looks to be a bit cooler than normal.