This morning’s outlook is a bit tough, as there is some major disagreement brewing between various models. In times like this, there is no model the completely correct. We are going to stick closely to our previous forecast, but we will also highlight areas this morning where we see additional moisture potential, if we are wrong.
Today will be a bit of a transition day. We will see clouds build through the day but can still see some decent sunshine over a large part or even all of the state before the clouds completely take over. Rain begins to develop overnight.
Rains tonight through tomorrow will be heaviest in the northern half of the state. Moisture arrives first in NW and north central IN, and then sweeps southeast. Tomorrow night through Thursday, the heaviest rains will be in central and southern Indiana. We see the potential for thunderstorms and heavier rains in both northern and southern areas through the entire rain event, but the heavier moisture has the potential to last longer in the south. Right now, we are leaving rain totals at half to 1.5” over 80% of the state, with the remaining 20% getting rain, but seeing totals more from .1”-.5”. The European model brings another surge of moisture in for all day Friday as well, however, we are not going to add that to our forecast right now. If we are wrong, and rains do linger through Friday, that could add another .25” to .5” to overall combined rain totals. But again, we are NOT making that change this morning.
We expect clouds but no new precipitation for Friday, and then on Saturday we should see a mix of clouds and some sun. Still, this is not going to be a fantastic dry down period. WE think that evaporation will be limited to a tenth of an inch per day, Friday and Saturday, and after the heavier rains prior, we have trouble seeing anyone able to make another good push at harvest. On Sunday, we expect another round of showers, this time with only 50-60% coverage. Moisture totals for Sunday afternoon and evening will be limited to .2”-.3” or less. Clouds mix with at least a little sunshine next Monday.
Rains move in across IL through Tuesday and will try and push into western Indiana. Rain then continues into next Wednesday. We look for rain totals of .25”-1” and coverage of 90%. Once again, models differ on this system, mostly on timing, not so much on rain totals. Some models bring the rain as soon as Monday, others push it back to Tuesday night. The takeaway is that we are seeing rain the first half of next week, and we don’t really want or need it. The map at right shows potential combined rain totals through next Wednesday.
We do cobble together 2 dry days back to back for the second half of next week, Thursday and Friday. But, then we have another system bringing rain for the 10th and 11th. We have been watching that system for the better part of 3 weeks now, and it should bring at least half to 1 inch rain and 80% coverage. It will be followed by another smaller chance of showers around the 14th.
So, overall, we are leaving rain totals alone this morning. We may have to tweak some things like intensity, duration or timing of some of the events going forward, but with such disagreement between data sets, there is nothing this morning that really suggests we need to change our outlook. Keep the umbrella handy.