We are entering the first wet stage of our forecast today. Rains move across the state from NW to SE, and the rains will linger through tomorrow. Rain today will be heaviest in the north where we can see .25”-1” while the southern half of the state ends up with a later start and only .1”-.5”. Then tomorrow, we flip it. The southern part of the state sees at least .25”-1”, while northern areas end up with only a few hundredths to a quarter of an inch. In fact, some parts of far northern and NW Indiana see rain end tonight, and even miss out on new precipitation tomorrow. Still, we think half to 1.5” rain totals will be a good solid expectation over 90% of the state through the next 2 days. We do continue to have some concern about areas down near the river. The front seems to stall there and we could see some heavier rains train right over the same areas through the event, bringing significantly higher rain totals. 2-3 inches or more cant be ruled out in spots.
Friday, we have plenty of clouds around. Precipitation is not a given, but we think most of the clouds will come from wrap around on the backside of this strong storm complex. Because of that, we can’t completely rule out a few scattered showers, but rain totals where it happens will be limited to a few hundredths to a quarter of an inch or less. Potential coverage will be 40% or less.
The weekend now looks to turn out dry. We should be rain free for Saturday and Sunday, although we will have clouds still trying to move through. A significant warm up is likely for the weekend too, with temps above normal. Monday clouds start to thicken up again, and we could see a few scattered showers. These are not well organized and will have minor coverage, but we can’t rule them out at the moment. Some models even still try to bring our next rain event in on Monday already. However, our forecast holds off just a bit.
Moderate to heavy rains are back for Monday overnight through Tuesday. The front looks significant, especially with the warm surge will experience in front of it over this weekend. That will promote rains of half to 1.5” over 100% of the state. A much cooler push of air follows that front in on the backside. The map at right shows total precipitation from today through next Tuesday night, and while we think the highest totals near the river may be a bit overzealous, they are not out of the realm of possibility.
Dry for the remainder of the week next week, Wednesday through Friday.
The extended period still features good rains of .25”-1” over 70% of the state for the 10th and 11th, and then scattered showers up to .25” for the 14th. Temps will pull back to normal and below normal levels for that 11-16 day window.