Change comes to our weather pattern today, although we are making very few actual changes to our forecast. Yesterday was likely the last day that felt like summer…and by coincidence, today is the last day of summer. A cold front moves through the state today and it will bring cooler air along with some minor precipitation. Scattered shows bring a few hundredths to a quarter inch in most areas and we look for coverage of around 70%.
Dry weather returns for the weekends. We still see heavy rains staying south of the Ohio River for the most part on Sunday but will say that the southern tier of counties in the state should prepare for at least a chance of showers Sunday afternoon. There is no threat farther north. Sunshine and blue sky will be in control of the rest of the state.
Rain is back on Monday and Tuesday. We are keeping our rain totals of a half to 2” combined over nearly 100% of the state for the 2-day period. However, we think the rains may be a bit slow to start, and the heaviest, most frequent rains likely develop for Tuesday. We still look for some lingering shower action into Wednesday morning, mostly over the southern half to third of the state before the sun returns everywhere. Sun will spread in from north to south. We will leave our estimate for additional rains up to .4” south of I-70 alone for Wednesday before precipitation moves out. Then we are fully dry for next Thursday.
Friday is the only part of the forecast where there is some question this morning. Models are divides on how precipitation comes in late next week. Some models bring action Friday, others delay it into Saturday. Either way, we likely are looking at a final system before we bring the month to a close. The even still has a potential for half to 1.5” rains but we are scaling coverage back slightly to 80% of the state.
The 11-16 day forecast period still is mostly dry this morning. We have strong Canadian high pressure slowly meandering across the central and eastern corn belt in the period, and we should see low humidity and good drying again. The difference there vs what we have seen here recently will be temperatures…we should be significantly cooler as we finish September and move into October than right now. Looking past the end of the 11-16 day period, we see a strong front building to the west, and that should bring rains of at least 1 inch back in for the October 6th and 7th time frame.
Temps pull back to near normal today through the weekend, and then behind the early week system make another move lower. We should be normal to below normal by the end of next week. We continue to point to that Oct 1 to Oct 3 period as a window where we can see our first frost in parts of the state, mostly NE and east central. The map above shows potential morning lows for October 1st.