Tough weekend on weather. Our front from last Friday cleared the state, but instead of seeing moisture stay along and south of the front on Saturday and Sunday, it worked to the north side of the front, bringing rain in over a large chunk of Indiana Saturday and still lingering Sunday. Things like this happen…but its just a bummer to see Mother Nature humble you at harvest season. But, we live to fight another day.
Today we find ourselves in-between two fronts. A cold front to the south still has plenty of moisture with it, and strong low pressure this morning in western TN. This low moves across Western KY and should be into SW Ohio by sunset tonight. To our northwest, a stationary-slash-cold front is working slowly southeast and has some moisture with it. Today will be a transition day, and we will see a wide array of weather conditions across the state as the two fronts sandwich us. The moisture moving from western TN to Ohio will spread moisture up across the southern third to half of the state through the day, while the front coming in from the NW will eventually trigger moisture statewide. By sunset, we should see scattered showers trying to develop over most of the state, and the frequency increases past midnight tonight through tomorrow. Action lingers through Wednesday morning before moving off to the east by midday Wednesday. We are lowering our combined rain totals a bit for today through Wednesday midday, looking for a half to 1.5”. Coverage will be 80%. There still can be some 2-inch rains in far SW Indiana, where thunderstorms are likely to be rather strong this afternoon and tonight. Northern Indiana will see the longest delay in action starting, and we may find that part of the state sunny and dry all the way to sunset before moisture starts. Northern areas truly are going to see their rain-dependent on the speed of the NW front…which to date has not been all that fast. The map at right shows combined rain potential now through midday Wednesday.
Dry for Wednesday afternoon, Thursday and Friday. Then we have moisture starting to work back into northern Indiana on Saturday. This will be predominantly from US 30 northward, but the scattered showers can linger down to US 24 for Sunday as well. We think these will be developing along and north of a warm front that lifts into the state for next weekend. Then better rains work in as low pressure finally arrives with the associated cold front to start next week. Rains out of the event will be half to 1.5” with coverage at 70%.
Dry next Tuesday through Thursday. The extended 11-16 day window starts with strong high pressure over the great lakes, and it could keep us dry through the entire extended period. A strong front approaches from the west around the 9th.
Temps still look to move lower here in the short haul. After the rains later today through Wednesday, we should see temps move to normal and below normal levels to finish the week. Then a slight bump in temps for the weekend as the warm front lifts through, followed by another push back to near normal behind the early week front next week. Concern about potential frost has waned for the time being…and we think seasonal temps are better positioned to dominate.