Rain moves across the state today. It’s been raining longer in some places than others, going back into yesterday, but pretty much everyone is going to pick up some moisture. We are leaving rain totals for this event alone at a half to 1.5”. Coverage is bumped to 90% for today. Warm air surged into the region last evening and overnight, which will raise the potential for strong thunderstorms. However, some overzealous storm hyping guys are talking all about severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. Don’t get sucked into the hype. Watch for a few storms…but really, this will just be a good rain event for most areas. Action can linger through mid-morning tomorrow before ending. The map at right shows potential for storm total precipitation through tomorrow midday.
Dry for Wednesday afternoon, Thursday and Friday. Then we have moisture starting to work back into northern Indiana on Saturday. This will be predominantly from US 30 northward, but the scattered showers can linger down to US 24 for Sunday as well. We think these will be developing along and north of a warm front that lifts into the state for next weekend. Then better rains work in as low pressure finally arrives with the associated cold front to start next week. Rains out of the event will be half to 1.5” with coverage at 70%. A new wrinkle in the forecast has emerged this morning, as models are not as swift with a dry down behind the early week action. We are putting more clouds in for Tuesday and Wednesday and will be on the lookout for additional rains through late in the 10-day period. These additional rains can bring up to another inch but will have coverage back closer to 40-50%.
We are leaving our extended 11-16 day forecast completely alone this morning, with strong high pressure holding over the great lakes, for most of the period. Our next front holds off until closer to the 10th and 11th.