Today we transition back to a drier, cooler weather pattern as we finally saw out cold front move through overnight. There still is a little bit of moisture to contend with on the backside of the cold front, and as such we will be dealing with scattered showers likely through the late morning to midday. Additional rain totals look rather minor at a few hundredths to a quarter of an inch, and we see coverage no better than 60%.
We do dry down this afternoon for the balance of the day, and sunshine should dominate by sunset. High pressure will be moving across Lake Michigan into northern Indiana this afternoon. The dry pattern continues tomorrow and Friday. Temps will be cooler than yesterday and may end up being about 2-5 degrees below normal for this time of year.
The weekend is a little drier in our outlook this morning, and we are pushing our significant next system back a little bit into next week. As such, we are looking for only a few scattered showers on Saturday. Models differ on arrival time, with some saying Saturday morning and midday, others saying Saturday night. All models agree, though, that we are looking at only a bit of moisture from US 24 northward, up to .2” and coverage of 60%. The rest of the state will be dry. Whether the action arrives early or late, it looks to only stick around for 4-5 hours or so…so it is not a big deal. Dry the rest of the weekend on Sunday and for the start of next week on Monday.
Our next system brings scattered showers for Tuesday and a reinforcing shot of rain and thunderstorms Wednesday of next week. Some models start the rains as soon as Monday night in the southern third of the state, but we like a Tuesday -Wednesday event for most areas. Combined rain totals for the Tuesday-Wednesday period will be from .25”-1.5” with 75% coverage. However, the key to those rain totals will be thunderstorms. If thunderstorms do not develop (and some guidance suggests there is not much of a threat) then we are looking at a .25”-.5” rainfall event at best. Without thunderstorms, this is a fairly gentle system.
We go back to dry weather for the finish of the week Friday and Saturday, and then start off the 11-16 day extended period with dry weather for Saturday and for Sunday morning. From there, we are making some changes to our extended forecast. Dry, high pressure looks to get locked up farther north, and we instead see some significant rains (.5”-2”) over the state from Sunday afternoon through Monday (the 7th and 8th). Those rains are not completely unexpected. Models had been trying to put a front in there around the 7th and 8th for the better part of the past week. Where our bigger change is coming in for the balance of the extended forecast window. We can see scattered showers linger for the 9th through the 11th, and they can bring another .25”-1” of moisture over the three days combined. With no changes going forward, this would mean a more lengthy slow down in harvest in early October. There is plenty of time for this front to modify and for us to move back to a drier forecast…but, for now, we are making the change to a more active pattern.