Finally, our cold front pushes through the state today. This will bring a marked change in the temperature pattern for the region. Temperatures behind the front today will be a good 20 degrees (or more) cooler than where we were this weekend and where we started this week. Now, if you are thinking “a change that dramatic has to be bringing some rain our way”…you would be wrong. This system is quite mature. The moisture has been pulled either well north with the northern low moving across Ontario, or has stayed well south, with the low and disturbances over TX and OK. That means the middle section of the front has rained out its available moisture already, and has nothing left for us. It just ran out of gas. That being said, we still can see clouds today, and we wont rule out few hundredths to a tenth of an inch of rain, mostly in central and southern Indiana. Winds today will also shift to the west and north, bringing the cooler air in behind the front. Those changes in air mass will be the most noticeable thing about the frontal passage today.
Behind the front tomorrow through the weekend we see temps cooler, but still mostly normal to slightly above. Highs in the upper 60s to mid-70s are likely for the nearby period. We are keeping our forecast dry as well through the weekend, with the only threat still over the great lakes and perhaps down into extreme northern and northeastern Indiana Friday morning and midday. There we still see the best moisture in the MI “thumb” and in NW OH, but we wont rule it out in Indiana either, in areas down to US-30. South of there, we have no threat for Friday, the rest of the state stays sunny and dry.
After much consternation we are pulling back our rain forecast for the frontal boundary coming through next Monday. It will still bring some rain, but likely only a few hundredths to about .2” over 70% of the state. This front, we think, is just going to run into an air mass that is way, way, way to dry to allow good precipitation and coverage. So, clouds will be around and the minor moisture can pop up, but it will not be anything that produces significant harvest delays. In fact, full sun is back already Tuesday, and we will be dry, sunny and slightly warm through the remainder of next week
In the extended period, a front moves in to the state around the 6th and bringing .1”-.5” rain potential with coverage at 60% of the state. And we still are watching a second system for the 9th into the 10th that can bring .25”-1” rain over 80% of the state. However, the concern this morning is that if the dry atmosphere is robbing systems in our current 10 day window (today and next Monday) of their moisture, what makes these two in the extended period any different (answer: nothing!). So, stay tuned!