Dry today and tomorrow statewide. High pressure will dominate and control the region. We should see south winds develop on the backside of the high later tomorrow into the weekend.
We are going to go ahead and make the weekend mostly dry in our forecast this morning. We won’t rule out a spotty shower or two between midnight tomorrow night and sunrise tomorrow morning over the northern third of the state, and the same kind of set up may develop 24 hours later for early Sunday morning. Other than that, the rest of the weekend and the rest of the state will be looking at partly to mostly sunny skies and a pleasant weekend. We see dry weather spill over into the start of next week too for Monday.
Our next system brings scattered showers for Tuesday. Right now, we will keep a second small wave of moisture for Wednesday into Thursday of next week but will grant that model this morning are a little less excited about that second wave. We want to see a little more data before making any forecast change and will make those changes to the forecast tomorrow morning ahead of the weekend. We will keep the low end of the rain range for the combined period at .25” but will drop the top end of the range down to .75” at this time. Any further tweaking of the forecast comes tomorrow morning. The map above shows a snapshot of action Tuesday midday.
We go back to dry weather for the finish of the week Friday and Saturday, and then start off the 11-16 day extended period with dry weather for Saturday and for Sunday morning. From there, we are making some changes to our extended forecast. Dry, high pressure looks to get locked up farther north, and we instead see some significant rains (.5”-2”) over the state from Sunday afternoon through Monday (the 7th and 8th). Those rains are not completely unexpected. Models had been trying to put a front in there around the 7th and 8th for the better part of the past week. Where our bigger change is coming is for the balance of the extended forecast window. We can see scattered showers linger for the 9th through the 11th, and they can bring another .25”-1” of moisture over the three days combined. With no changes going forward, this would mean a more lengthy slow down in harvest in early October. There is plenty of time for this front to modify and for us to move back to a drier forecast…but, for now, we are making the change to a more active pattern.