Unseasonably warm, dry weather remains over the state as we start another week. This weather is nearly perfect for harvest, as the heat and sunshine are aiding drydown. Now, crops that can use one more “finishing” rain will be left wanting this week. Even as front moves through at midweek, it will do so with no significant rain potential. Temps will be well above normal today and tomorrow, before starting to ease back on Wednesday.
Speaking of Wednesday, that is when our next front does in fact arrive. However, at this time, we are only looking for clouds and a few spits and sprinkles. The significant rains the front has farther west are all gone when it finally arrives here. In fact, we likely are only looking at a shift in wind direction, and a cooler batch of air to signal the front moving through. If you are looking for rain, you will be disappointed at midweek.
Behind the front, we see temps cooler, but still mostly normal to slightly above. Highs in the upper 60s to mid-70s are likely through Thursday, Friday and into the weekend. We stay dry. The only threat we need to monitor is an upper-level disturbance moving over Michigan on Friday that may try and swing some scattered light shower action down into extreme northern tier counties of Indiana (LaPorte, St. Joe, Elkhart, Lagrange, Noble, Steuben and Dekalb) there on Friday morning into midday. Better rain potential will be further north in MI. The rest of the state sees nothing.
A better front develops early next week late Monday night into early Tuesday. This front is the one we have been mentioning for the Oct 3-4 period going back in our forecasts almost 10 days or more. It is coming just a little quicker, but still, has a potential for .25”-.6” rain totals over about 80% of the state. It moves through fast: by midday Tuesday, it is already gone to the east. The front moves quick enough and the air/ground will be dry enough from our previous pattern that the moisture likely soaks in quickly and will lead to very few actual delays behind the front. The rest of the 10 day period is dry through the end of Thursday. The map above shows a snapshot of the potential set up next Tuesday morning.
For the extended 11-16 day period, we have two systems moving through. The first is a system with origins in the central plains that lifts up from the southwest into the state for Friday the 6th. This system has rains of .1”-.5” with coverage at 60% of the state. This system is much more impressive back over parts of MO and may rain itself out by a good deal before it actually can get in here. The other system is much more impressive, and will be a sweeping front that brings .25”-1” rain potential for the 9th and some of it may linger into the 10th. Coverage will be 90% of the state for that system, as it sits right now. Temps through the extended period will be mostly normal, and overnight lows actually can be above normal for early October. We have no concern about frost until after the 22nd of October, and it may push more toward the 26th.