We are making very few changes to the forecast this morning and are pretty much locked into some significant rains across the state this weekend as the remains of tropical system Gordon work through while interacting with a stalled frontal boundary. However, before we get there, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be in over the state today. Today’s action may fill in some of the holes that developed in yesterday’s coverage, but we still are really only looking at 60% coverage through the day today. There is a little more concern over west central Indiana about a few thunderstorms today, but really that threat is farther to the west in Illinois.
Moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorm action moves in for Saturday and Sunday. The heaviest rains may end up falling from Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. Rain totals across the state can have a wide range, and models are all over. We think the best look at it here as we head into the weekend is for a large part of the state to see at least 1-4 inches. Then, we can see a much smaller percentage of the state getting 4-6 inches or more. Coverage of rain in the state will be 100%. However, the most intense rains will be limited to about 20%. WE think the heaviest rains will be anywhere from the I-70 corridor up to the US 24 corridor, and then banding out from there. Realistically, anything over 2-3 inches will be too much from this one event…so it’s just adding insult to injury from there. We already have flood watches out over central Indiana…they were issued yesterday. Rain potential through Monday morning is shown below…this is guidance only…not an exact location by location narrative.
Rain does look to end sooner on Sunday night, and that will lead to a mostly dry Monday. Tuesday also is dry through the daylight hours and we only have to watch for a few scattered showers near the Ohio River Tuesday evening and toward midnight.
Scattered showers are back for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. We only see coverage at 30-40% on any of those individual days, but combined we are closer to 60% coverage for the 3-day period. Rain totals combined will be under half an inch.
Finally, a nice, extended dry period comes in for next weekend (Saturday and Sunday on through Monday and now Tuesday (the 18th). Temps will be climbing for the period and we should see excellent drying conditions which will be needed. Rains are still on the way for the 19th, but that system continues to look rather minor and we are putting rain totals at half an inch or less with coverage at 70%. We still think this event could weaken further.
Back to dry weather for the 20th, 21st and early the 22nd. Then we see a small-scale batch of disturbed weather coming in from the NW for the afternoon of the 22nd into the 23rd. Rains could give a few hundredths to half an inch max.
Temps the next few days while the rains are falling will be cooler. Then behind the heavy rains temps start to rebound early next week and will continue to climb to above normal levels of the rest of the forecast window.