Home Market Market Watch Seed Consultant 3/13/2013 Closing Comment with Gary Wilhemy

Seed Consultant 3/13/2013 Closing Comment with Gary Wilhemy


A tired old bull market managed to limp over the finish line with small gains
Dow up 5, S&P 3 better and NASDAQ up 3
The budget discussions have not advanced past beyond political posturing
Retail sales were up 1.1%, but I never take one month at face value preferring to watch the trend
The formulas of these reports are regularly changed so it isn’t apples and apples
WTI crude slipped slightly and Brent crude fell $1.28
Gold traded $5 lower most of the day
The dollar index maintained a gain of 29 points at the close to end up at 82.87
The dollar at this elevated level stifles exports

The jury is still out on cattle cash with offers at $130
Boxed beef had been flopping about at its high of $197 choice
April futures without cash leadership got nowhere
April hogs saw another support level bite the dust closing at $80.77
Pork mixed
Margins tight
Cash steady
Corned beef in honor of St Pat’s Day led the features with flats at $4.88

Grain and soybeans
May beans old off on rumors of sales cancellations and given the huge crops coming out of Brazil that’s no surprise
Labor problems at Brazilian ports have delayed shipments
May corn fell 8 cents on poor demand
Support under these markets is at $6.85 May corn, $14.00 May beans and May wheat about $6.80
114,000 tons of sorghum was sold to an unknown and that’s another sign of alternative corn options
Kansas wheat is rated 27% good to excellent or quite poor
China may appear in the export sales report as well as routine beans and perhaps some cancellations
The strong dollar, with some thinking it could go up to 89 puts a crimp in exports that must ne measured over the long term
Spring weather is the province of wizards and we are fresh out
Prospective plantings on the 29th will be sizable and the mix of acreage will generally follow rotational norms

11:41 update

Corn and soybeans swoon
May corn off 9 with support at $6.85 and last at $7.05
May bean down 25 at $14.44 with support at $14.20 then 14.00
Volume accelerated on sell off
Markets getting over sold
Talk of normal spring is premature


11:12 update

Dollar advances 40 to 82.93
Budget hopes fade due to dueling plans
Static stocks
Brazilian transportation problems versus possible record US plantings will be the main bout in April
Some private forecasters see a normal spring but that is just guess work
Volume of trade in all segments is low


Stocks hang near highs—Dow opens up 2
S&P key resistance is 1565
Light volume indicates fatigue
Retail sales up 1.1 % in February versus +.5% expected
Business inventories expected at +. 5%
Italian interest rates continue to go up hampering borrowing
Euro zone production off .4% but up 1.3% on the year
Japanese yen up Nikkei down
DAX unchanged
US import prices up 1.1%
WTI crude $93.01 up $ .40
Gold $5191 off $1
Dollar index up 17 at 82.74 a choker collar on US exporters

$130 offers on cattle
Boxed beef mixed
Choice beef holding near $197
Slaughter off 2000 thus far
St. Patrick’s Day corned beef features lead the counter with flats at $4.88
Pork cutout on a 177 load trade with carcass off $ .49, loins up $ .18 and hams down $ .45
Hog kill 14,000 less than a week ago

Grain and soybeans
Steady grains and May bean down 8 at $14.60
May resistance $15
Too much rain in the Delta delays corn but that’s just a sliver of production
Port delays continue in Brazil
Watch export sales for Chinese bean buying and perhaps some corn
Monitor the Nov bean –Dec corn price ratio for planting fine tuning
Generally producers tend to stay with rotation