Home Indiana Agriculture News Seed Consultants 3/19/2013 Market Closing with Gary Wilhemy

Seed Consultants 3/19/2013 Market Closing with Gary Wilhemy


 Market Closing

Mixed conclusion in US equities
DAX off .8%
Housing starts up .8%
Cyprus parliament unable to reach a consensus on tax levy, so the next move may be into bankruptcy
Dollar index up 24 at 82.90
Gold $1605 up a few
Crude oil WTI down $1.64
US banks not much involved, but undertow is present

New lows in April cattle and hogs
Domestic demand is punk
Wintry blast retards cattle weights gain but not for long
COF Friday with a 6% lower total on feed expected
Cash hogs wallow

Grain and soybeans
Interior corn basis firm on tight supplies
Dryness continues to haunt winter wheat
Both May corn and wheat closed eight higher
May beans off four
China cancelling perhaps as many as 10-12 MT of Brazilian bean purchases because of shipping delays, but a transfer to US supplies may not be parallel
Corn reduced as percentage of feed ration (42% from 45% last year)
Two eastern ethanol plants reopen
Plot the old crop new crop corn and soybean spreads
Chinese crush margins said to ease
Analyzing economic reports is like going to a costume party

12:58 update

Dow off 35
Chinese crush margins soften
China may be cancelling 10-12 MT of Brazilian beans but switch to US is not automatic
Corn feed usage 42% of total versus 45% a year ago.
Two eastern ethanol plants reopen
Tightly supplied corn basis firms
Cattle and hogs both at their lows

10:46 update

Dow up 16 and S&P and NADAQ steady
Cyprus tax levy unlikely to pass parliament, but then what?
Packers at ease in cattle
Wintry blast harms weight gain
Pork margins in the black but cash steady to lower
Russian grain stocks seen at 16 MT 13/14 up from 15 MT
China cancels 2 MT of Brazilian beans due to delays
Gulf bean down 5 on slow demand
Bull spreads working in corn

Opening Comment

Dow up 43 as housing starts were .8% higher in February
Cyprus on hold as banks are closed until Thursday
US banks are not deeply involved, but Cyprus is just another piece of European dysfunction
The longer the crisis goes on the greater the risk of a European run on the banks
S&P down 9 and NASDAQ up 8
DAX .2% lower and FTSE up .2%
WTI crude $93.73 off $.6
Gold $1602 steady
Dollar unchanged at 82.72

Cash cattle offered at $129
Boxed beef narrowly mixed with the spread plus $2
Show lists larger
Meat demand sloppy domestically but exports were good last week
COF -6% expected on total on feed
19 loads of pork at $.53 higher on carcass, loins $2.40 higher and hams down $.27
Kill 119,000 cattle and 426,000 hogs

Grain and soybeans
Grains a penny mixed and beans down 5 cents
Corn stocks seen at 5 b and soybeans at 940 m
Corn acres 97 m and soybeans 78 m
Old- new soybean spread has moved $.50 since 3-11
Midwest has had some rain but more and regular showers are needed
Dec corn resistance is at $5.70 and Nov bean support at $12.50
Dollar steady but on its high
Outside markets shuttering in uncertainty